2025 - Team Ratings After Round 18

/

The Dogs and Pies continue to fill the Top 2 spots on both Systems, the Cats fill 4th on both, while the Lions and Crows hold down 3rd and 5th in either order depending on the System you prefer.

MoSSBODS reranked only four teams this week, switching the Lions and the Cats in 3rd and 4th, and the Giants and Power in 12th and 13th, while MoSHBODS moved eight teams, but also none by more than a single spot.

Overall, MoSSBODS still has 11 teams rated as above average, as does MoSHBODS, although MoSHBODS swaps in GWS for Carlton.

The correlation between MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS Combined Ratings now stands at +0.98 and, roughly speaking, each team’s Combined MoSHBODS Rating is about 0.94 times its Combined MoSSBODS Rating.

On the Component Ratings, on offence we find both MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS still with a Top 3 of Dogs, Cats, and Pies. On defence, MoSSBODS now has a Top 3 of Pies, Hawks, and Lions, while MoSHBODS still has Pies, Crows, and Hawks.

MoSSBODS still has 11 teams rated as above average on offence, while MoSHBODS has only 10. MoSSBODS still has 11 teams rated as above average on defence, while MoSHBODS npw has only 8.

Offensive ratings on MoSSBODS currently span a range of 1.48 standard deviations (which is unchanged) and defensive ratings a range of 1.29 standard deviations (which has slightly shrunk). Offensive ratings on MoSHBODS span a range of 1.62 standard deviations (which has slightly widened) and defensive ratings a range of about 1.20 standard deviations (which has also slightly widened).

We can also review the trajectory that each team has followed to arrive at its current MoSHBODS Rating (with thanks to www.footyjumpers.com for the use of their exquisite team guernseys)

On MoSHBODS, 7 teams are now rated positively on offence and defence (no change), 7 are rated negatively on both (up 1), three are rated positively on offence but negatively on defence (no change), and one is rated negatively on offence but positively on defence (down 1).

The correlation between the teams’ MoSHBODS offensive and defensive Ratings now stands at +0.78, which is down a fraction on last week.

To put the latest MoSHBODS Ratings in some historical context, here are the Ratings of teams across V/AFL history as at the end of their respective Round 18s.

The Western Bulldogs have slipped back out of the top decile for the Combined Rating of teams that went on to make their Grand Final.

And, finally, it’s time to take a look at MARS, which re-ranked eight teams this week, swapping Adelaide into 3rd at the expense of Geelong, GWS into 7th at the expense of Gold Coast, Melbourne into 12th at the expense of Carlton, and Richmond into 17th at the expense of West Coast.

Just over 19 Rating Points now separates 1st from 9th now, which roughly equates to a score gap at a neutral venue of about 15 points.

By way of comparison, at the end of Round 18 last season, the gap between 1st and 9th was just under 31 Rating Points, or roughly 24 points. Sydney was at that point ranked 1st with a Rating of 1,038.1, Melbourne were 9th on 1,008.8, and North Melbourne were last again on 950.3.

There are still 10 teams rated better-than-average by MARS, with Port Adelaide’s 994.9 the next-closest.

Looking across the rankings of all three Systems and comparing them with the teams’ competition ladder positions (determined based on percentage of possible competition points collected and then for and against percentage), we find relatively large differences between the teams’ ladder positions and their rating system ordering for:

HIGHER ON LADDER THAN ON RANKING SYSTEMS: None

LOWER ON LADDER THAN ON RANKING SYSTEMS: Western Bulldogs and Melbourne (ignoring MARS)

MoSSBODS this week provides the most outlying rankings at 9, ahead of MARS with 5, and MoSHBODS with only 1.

MoSHBODS and MARS agree about the ranking of 12 teams now, MoSSBODS and MARS about only 7, and MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS about 9.

Looking finally at the range of rankings that the three Systems have attached to each team we find that GWS has the widest range of rankings at five spots, but that there are only two other teams (Sydney and Melbourne) whose rankings span more than two spots.

There are also now seven teams that the Systems unanimously rank: Collingwood, Essendon, Geelong, Hawthorn, St Kilda, West Coast, and Western Bulldogs.

Broadly speaking the various Rating Systems generally moved a little closer in terms of their rankings this week (MARS and MoSHBODS being a slight exception), as shown by the rank correlations below:

  • MARS with MoSSBODS: +0.94 (was +0.942)

  • MARS with MoSHBODS: +0.988 (was +0.981)

  • MoSSBODS with MoSHBODS: +0.961 (was +0.957)