2025 - Round 18 Results - Rinse and Repeat

Only ive of the nine early-week favourites were successful this weekend, which, coupled with relatively low levels of contrarianism, saw correct tips scores all in the four to six range.

At the top end of that range were the MoS trio and Home Sweet Home, and at the lower end, the RSMP twins.

All of which meant that MoSHPlay_Marg finished the round now leading Bookie Knows Best by three tips, with ENS_Linear still three tips behind Bookie Knows Best in 3rd.

The all-Tipster score came in at 5.2 from 9, which took the season-long all-Tipster performance to 104.5 from 152 (69%).

Margin prediction was, on average, almost exactly as easy and as difficult as last week, and easiest for Bookie_9, whose mean average error (MAE) of 13.5 points per game was over half-a-point per game better than next best Bookie_Hcap’s 14.1 points per game. RSMP_Simple recorded the worst MAE of 16.7 points per game.

The all-Predictor average was 15.4 points per game, which moved the season-long average to 25.8 points per game.

The round-by-round history of Margin Predictor rankings appears below, and shows an unchanged ordering from top to bottom.

Log probability scores were all narrowly positive and very similar for all forecasters this week, although the bookie-based forecasters did slightly better than the MoS trio.

As a result, MoSHPlay_Prob still sits atop the Leaderboard, but Bookie_LPSO has pushed itself ahead of MoSHBODS_Prob into 2nd. MoSSBODS_Prob still sits in last place.

WAGERING

Both active Funds registered red ink again this week, making it now 10 successive rounds of Portfolio losses.

Overall, the Combined Portfolio finished down by 2.3c, leaving it up by 1c on the season, that from a 0.7% ROI on a 1.55 turn.