The average absolute difference between the MoS twins’ Total forecasts this week is 2.3 points per game, and there are three games where the difference exceeds 3 points, and one more where it is between 2 and 3 points. All four forecasters once again have very similar average expected total scores.

There is a lot of disagreement this week about the highest- and lowest-scoring games and teams:

Highest Scoring Game

MoS twins: Brisbane Lions v Western Bulldogs
Bookmakers: Adelaide v Gold Coast

Lowest Scoring Game

MoS twins: Collingwood v Fremantle
Bookmakers: Hawthorn v Port Adelaide

Highest Scoring Team

MoSHBODS: Geelong
MoSSBODS and Bookmakers: Sydney

Lowest Scoring Team

MoSSBODS: North Melbourne
MoSHBODS: Fremantle
TAB: Port Adelaide
Sportsbet: Essendon

WAGERS

MoSSBODS has found three possible wagers this week, two unders and an overs that’s been vetoed by the rain rule.

The estimated overlays in the two wagered upon games are both around 9 points and the bet sizes are 3.3% and 4%.

PREVIOUS WEEK

Last week saw the TAB take mean absolute error (MAE) honours for Away Team Scores, MoSHBODS do the same for Home Team Scores and Game Totals, and Sportsbet do the same for Game Margins.

The TAB still has the season-long lead on all four metrics.

Those leads are now as follows:

Game Margins: the TAB 7 points ahead of Sportsbet, 112 points ahead of MoSHBODS, and 239 points ahead of MoSSBODS
Home Team Scores: TAB 19 points ahead of Sportsbet, 22 points ahead of MoSHBODS, and 112 points ahead of MoSSBODS
Away Team Scores: the TAB 12 points ahead of Sportsbet, 73 points ahead of MoSHBODS, and 121 points ahead of MoSSBODS
Game Totals: TAB 13 points ahead of Sportsbet, 46 points ahead of MoSHBODS, and 77 points ahead of MoSSBODS

Wagering and Game-by-Game Performance

There were no bets last weekend, which left MoSSBODS with a 12 and 14 season-long record against the TAB, and a 6 and 6 season-long record against Sportsbet.

Overall, MoSSBODS was on the right side of the TAB in 5 games last week, and on the right side of Sportsbet in 4 games. MoSHBODS was on the right side of both bookmakers in 5 games.

That takes MoSSBODS to 76 from 152 (50%) against the TAB and Sportsbet, and MoSHBODS to 86 from 152 (57%) against the TAB, and 85 from 152 (56%) against Sportsbet.

The round-by-round performance is shown in the following table.