Seven of the nine early-week favourites were successful this weekend (and an eighth had to defy fourth quarter history to lower the count by one), which, coupled once again with relatively low levels of contrarianism, saw correct tips scores of sevens, excepting Home Sweet Home’s six.

That left MoSHPlay_Marg still two tips clear of Bookie Knows Best in 1st, and ENS_Linear still three tips futher back from BKB in 3rd.

The all-Tipster average score came in at 6.9 from 9, which took the season-long all-Tipster average performance to 117.5 from 170 (69%).

Margin prediction was, on average, around 14 points per game harder than last week, but easiest for MoSHPlay_Marg, whose mean average error (MAE) of 32.2 points per game was about one-and-a-half-points per game better than next best Bookie_Hcap’s 33.7 points per game. MoSSBODS_Marg once again recorded the worst MAE, this time of 38.9 points per game.

The all-Predictor average was 35.1 points per game, which moved the season-long average to 26.1 points per game.

The round-by-round history of Margin Predictor rankings appears below, and shows Bookie_3 taking the lead from ENS_Linear, and Bookie_9 moving ahead of RSMP_Simple. MoSHPlay_Marg, while not moving up the ladder, did considerably reduce the gap to the leader.

Log probability scores were all very positive this week and very similar, with MoSSBODS_Prob narrowly worst and Bookie_LPSO narrowly best

At the end of it all, MoSHPlay_Prob still sits atop the Leaderboard with Bookie_LPSO in 2nd, and Bookie_RE in 3rd ahead of MoSHBODS_Prob. MoSSBODS_Prob still sits in last place.

WAGERING

Another round, around loss. Hard to craft a compelling narrative out of that story arc. Remarkably, despite finishing in red ink in 10 of the last 12 rounds, the Line Fund is still showing a small season-long profit.