2025 - Round 19 Results - Still on the Rinse Cycle

Six of the nine early-week favourites were successful this weekend, which, coupled as usual with relatively low levels of contrarianism, saw correct tips scores of sixes, excepting Consult The Ladder, which managed eight, and MoSHPlay_Marg. which managed only five.

All of which meant that MoSHPlay_Marg finished the round now leading Bookie Knows Best by only two tips, with ENS_Linear still three tips behind Bookie Knows Best in 3rd.

The all-Tipster score came in at 6.1 from 9, which took the season-long all-Tipster performance to 110.6 from 161 (69%).

Margin prediction was, on average, almost exactly a goal per game harder than last week, but easiest again for Bookie_9, whose mean average error (MAE) of 20.4 points per game was over half-a-point per game better than next best MoSHPlay_Marg’s 21 points per game. MoSSBODS_Marg returned to form and recorded the worst MAE of 23.4 points per game.

The all-Predictor average was 21.4 points per game, which moved the season-long average to 25.6 points per game.

The round-by-round history of Margin Predictor rankings appears below, and shows only one change, with Bookie_9’s round best MAE dragging it into 7th ahead of RSMP_Weighted.

Log probability scores were all positive and again very similar for all forecasters this week, although the bookie-based forecasters and MoSHPlay_Prob did slightly better than the two other MoS models.

As a result, MoSHPlay_Prob still sits atop the Leaderboard, with Bookie_LPSO still in 2nd, and now Bookie_RE in 3rd ahead of MoSHBODS_Prob. MoSSBODS_Prob still sits in last place.

WAGERING

Once Essendon had capitulated on Thursday night it was pretty much a case of how large the loss would be for Investors, and that turned out to be just under 3c.

That 2.9c loss dragged the overall Combined Portfolio into a season loss for the first time. It is now down by just under 2c on the season, that from a -1.1% ROI on a 1.65 turn.