2025 - Team Ratings After Round 17

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MoSSBODS left its Top 9 teams unchanged this week, while MoSHBODS did the same for its Top 5, which meant that the round finished with the two Systems still sharing a Top 3 of Western Bulldogs, Collingwood, and Geelong.

Altogether, MoSSBODS made only four changes and MoSHBODS only five, all single spot moves except for Sydney falling two spots to 11th and GWS rising three spots to 9th, both on MoSHBODS.

At the end of it all, the two Systems still had a common Top 3 of Dogs, Pies, and Cats.

Overall, MoSSBODS still has 11 teams rated as above average, as does MoSHBODS, although MoSHBODS swaps in GWS for Carlton.

The correlation between MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS Combined Ratings now stands at +0.98 and, roughly speaking, each team’s Combined MoSHBODS Rating is about 0.92 times its Combined MoSSBODS Rating.

On the Component Ratings, on offence we find both MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS still with a Top 3 of Dogs, Cats, and Pies. On defence, MoSSBODS still has a Top 3 of Pies, Dogs, and Lions, while MoSHBODS now has Pies, Crows, and Hawks.

MoSSBODS still has 11 teams rated as above average on offence, while MoSHBODS has only 10. MoSSBODS still has 11 teams rated as above average on defence, while MoSHBODS still has only 10.

Offensive ratings on MoSSBODS currently span a range of 1.48 standard deviations (which has slightly widened) and defensive ratings a range of 1.4 standard deviations (which has also slightly widened). Offensive ratings on MoSHBODS span a range of 1.56 standard deviations (which has slightly widened) and defensive ratings a range of about 1.19 standard deviations (which has also slightly widened). In short, the gaps between the best and worst teams widened this week.

We can also review the trajectory that each team has followed to arrive at its current MoSHBODS Rating (with thanks to www.footyjumpers.com for the use of their exquisite team guernseys)

On MoSHBODS, 7 teams are now rated positively on offence and defence (down 1), 6 are rated negatively on both (no change), three are rated positively on offence but negatively on defence (up 1), and two are rated negatively on offence but positively on defence (no change).

The correlation between the teams’ MoSHBODS offensive and defensive Ratings now stands at +0.85, which is up a fraction on last week.

To put the latest MoSHBODS Ratings in some historical context, here are the Ratings of teams across V/AFL history as at the end of their respective Round 17s.

The Western Bulldogs have slipped back into the top decile for the Combined Rating of teams that went on to make their Grand Final.

And, finally, it’s time to take a look at MARS, which re-ranked eight teams this week, including putting Collingwood into 2nd ahead of Geelong and Adelaide.

Further down, Gold Coast and GWS both moved up one spot each, supplanting Fremantle who fell two spots into 9th.

The only other move was Port Adelaide taking 11th from Carlton.

Just over 22 Rating Points now separates 1st from 9th now, which roughly equates to a score gap at a neutral venue of about 18 points.

By way of comparison, at the end of Round 17 last season, the gap between 1st and 9th was just over 27 Rating Points, or roughly 22 points. Sydney was at that point ranked 1st with a Rating of 1,035.1, Melbourne were 9th on 1,007.9, and West Coast were newly last on 951.8.

There are still 10 teams rated better-than-average by MARS, with Port Adelaide’s 994.4 the next-closest.

Looking across the rankings of all three Systems and comparing them with the teams’ competition ladder positions (determined based on percentage of possible competition points collected and then for and against percentage), we find relatively large differences between the teams’ ladder positions and their rating system ordering for:

HIGHER ON LADDER THAN ON RANKING SYSTEMS: None (though Essendon is close)

LOWER ON LADDER THAN ON RANKING SYSTEMS: Western Bulldogs and Melbourne (ignoring MARS)

Broadly speaking, the ladder is now more aligned with the various team rating systems than it has been all season.

MoSSBODS this week provides the most outlying rankings at 10, ahead of MoSHBODS with 5, and MARS with only 3.

MoSHBODS and MARS agree about the ranking of 11 teams now, MoSSBODS and MARS about only 7, and MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS about only 5 (but including the Top 3).

Looking finally at the range of rankings that the three Systems have attached to each team we find that GWS has the widest range of rankings at five spots, but that there are only two teams (Sydney and Melbourne) whose rankings span more than two spots.

There are also five teams that the Systems unanimously rank: Collingwood, Essendon, Geelong, St Kilda, and Western Bulldogs.

Broadly speaking the various Rating Systems generally moved a little closer in terms of their rankings this week (MoSHBODS and MoSSBODS being a slight exception), as shown by the rank correlations below:

  • MARS with MoSSBODS: +0.942 (was +0.926)

  • MARS with MoSHBODS: +0.981 (was +0.971)

  • MoSSBODS with MoSHBODS: +0.957 (was +0.975)