2025 - Round 18 : Models Have No Loss Aversion

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Another full round of nine games this week although this nine promises to be a lot closer than last weeks’ nine. Six of them are expected to be won by less than 3 goals, two more by just over 4 goals, and the ninth by just over 6 goals.

I can’t imagine there’ll be nine out of nine for anyone this week.

Let’s see what they’re guessing.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

Home Sweet Home has its mandatory contrarian tips in five games this week, and Consult the Ladder in two, joined only by the RSMP twins in the Dockers v Hawks game, and the MoS twins in the Suns v Pies game.

Amongst the Margin Predictors there are double-digit forecast ranges in four games, most notably 22 points in the Blues v Lions clash, 14 points in the Dogs v Crows clash, and 13 points in the Dees v Roos matchup.

MoSSBODS_Marg is the extreme Predictor in six games, and Bookie_3 and Bookie_9 in three games each.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors there are only two games with a double-digit percentage point forecast range: 16% points in the Blues v Lins game, and 12% points in the Dogs v Crows game.

MoSSBODS_Prob is the extreme Predictor in seven games, and Bookie_RE in four games.

WAGERS

MoSHBODS, like a teenager spending its parents’ money, has found apparent value in four head-to-head and five line markets this week. The head-to-head wagers range in size from just 0.7% to 1.4%, and total 4.5% of the original Head-to-Head Fund, and the line wagers range in size from just 0.9% to 4.8%, and total just over 10% of the original Line Fund. Investors were spared a similarly large head-to-head wager on the Blues by the fact that the assessed positive return on the putative wager would have just exceeded 50% since MoSHBODS rates the Blues 33.5% chances and they are priced at $4.50 on the TAB.

The head-to-head bets are on three underdogs and one favourite, and the line bets on four underdogs and one favourite.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

The week’s Ready Reckoner reveals that Carlton, even without a hefty head-to-head wager, carry the most risk in the sense that the difference between a loss by 26 points or more and a smaller loss represents 5.9% of the original Combined Portfolio. On the same metric Western Bulldogs carry 3% risk, St Kilda 2.8%, Richmond 1.9%, and Gold Coast 1.7%.

A best case set of results would boost the Combined Portfolio by just over 7c, while a worst case set would snip just under 8c off the price.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.