2025 - Round 17 Results - The Wrong Kind of Right
/All of the nine early-week favourites were successful this weekend, so, once again, contrarianism was the only reason not to tip the card.
Consult the Ladder was a one-game contrarian, and Home Sweet Home a five-game contrarian, meaning that the seven top Head-to-Head Predictors bagged 9 from 9 while Consult the Ladder bagged 8 and Home Sweet Home just 4.
All of which meant that MoSHPlay_Marg finished still leading Bookie Knows Best by two tips, with ENS_Linear still three tips behind Bookie Knows Best in 3rd.
The all-Tipster score came in at 8.3 from 9, which took the season-long all-Tipster performance to 99.3 from 143 (69%).
Margin prediction was, on average, over 10 points per game easier this week, and easiest once again for Bookie_3, whose mean average error (MAE) of 11.4 points per game was almost two points per game better than next best ENS_Linear’s 13.2 points per game. Bookie_9 recorded the worst MAE of 18.6 points per game.
The all-Predictor average was 15.3 points per game, which moved the season-long average to 26.5 points per game.
The round-by-round history of Margin Predictor rankings appears below, and shows, amongst other things, MoSHPlay_Marg climbing back into 5th and an unchanged Top3 of ENS_Linear, Bookie_3, and Bookie_LPSO.
Log probability scores were all strongly positive - and season single round bests or nearly so - and very similar for all forecasters this week.
As a result, MoSHPlay_Prob still sits atop the Leaderboard ahead of MoSHBODS_Prob, with Bookie_LPSO in 3rd, and MoSSBODS_Prob still in last place.
WAGERING
No regression, just mean again this week, as all three Funds made losses.
Overall, the Combined Portfolio finished down by 3.3c, leaving it up by 3.3c on the season, that from a 2.3% ROI on a 1.47 turn.