The average absolute difference between the MoS twins’ Total forecasts this week is a relatively high 3 points per game, and there are four games where the difference equals or exceeds that value, and four more where it is between 2 and 3 points. Nonetheless, all four forecasters once again have very similar average expected total scores.

There is a lot of disagreement again this week about the highest- and lowest-scoring games and teams:

Highest Scoring Game

MoS twins: North Melbourne v Geelong
Bookmakers: Essendon v Western Bulldogs

Lowest Scoring Game

MoS twins: Hawthorn v Carlton
Bookmakers: Adelaide v Port Adelaide

Highest Scoring Team

MoSSBODS: Geelong
MoSHBODS and Bookmakers: Western Bulldogs

Lowest Scoring Team

MoS twins and TAB: Richmond
Sportsbet: West Coast

WAGERS

MoSSBODS has found three possible wagers this week, one unders and two overs that have been vetoed by the rain rule.

The estimated overlay in the lone wagered upon game is just under 9 points and the bet size is 3.4%. The overlay is the second vetoed game is 16 points, which makes a wager very tempting, but in that way lies madness …

PREVIOUS WEEK

Last week saw the TAB take mean absolute error (MAE) honours for Away Team Scores, MoSHBODS do the same for Game Totals, and Sportsbet do the same for Game Margins and Home Team Scores.

The TAB still has the season-long lead on all four metrics, however.

Those leads are now as follows:

Game Margins: the TAB 6 points ahead of Sportsbet, 140 points ahead of MoSHBODS, and 285 points ahead of MoSSBODS
Home Team Scores: TAB 19 points ahead of Sportsbet, 33 points ahead of MoSHBODS, and 138 points ahead of MoSSBODS
Away Team Scores: the TAB 41 points ahead of Sportsbet, 93 points ahead of MoSHBODS, and 138 points ahead of MoSSBODS
Game Totals: TAB 19 points ahead of Sportsbet, 27 points ahead of MoSHBODS, and 76 points ahead of MoSSBODS

Wagering and Game-by-Game Performance

There were two bets last weekend, both unders wagers with the TAB, and both successful, which left MoSSBODS with a 14 and 14 season-long record against the TAB, and a 6 and 6 season-long record against Sportsbet.

Overall, MoSSBODS was on the right side of the TAB and Sportsbet in 5 games last week, and MoSHBODS was on the right side of the TAB in 7 games and of Sportsbet in 6 games.

That takes MoSSBODS to 81 from 161 (50%) against the TAB and Sportsbet, and MoSHBODS to 93 from 161 (58%) against the TAB, and 91 from 161 (57%) against Sportsbet.

The round-by-round performance is shown in the following table.