MoSHBODS’ average total this week is slightly higher than the bookmakers’, but the differences for individual games sit on either side of zero.
Its forecast of 197 points in the Lions v Swans game is comfortably its highest forecast of the season.
Read MoreAnother round of seven games this week, with four expected to be decided by about three goals or less, one by about four-and-a-half goals, another by five goals, and the last by six goals.
Six of them have home favourites with an average expected victory margin of 21.2 points per game, and just one has an away team favourite with an expected victory margin of 17.5 points. Across all seven games, the average expected margin is 20.6 points per game, more than double last week’s average.
Read MoreMoSHBODS changed the ranking of eight teams this week, but none in the top 6 or the bottom 5. Its Top 3 remain Fremantle, Geelong, and Sydney.
Further down the order, the multi-spot movers were Carlton (up 4 into 7th), St Kilda (down 3 into 10th), Western Bulldogs (up 2 into 11th), and Gold Coast (down 2 into 12th)
MARS also kept its top 6 and bottom 5 unchanged, leaving Geelong, Fremantle, and Sydney as its Top 3.
Its multi-spot movers were Carlton (up 3 into 10th), GWS (down 2 into 9th), and Collingwood (down 2 into 12th).
Read MoreOnce again, six of the seven early-week favourites won this week, but Bookie Knows Best, ENS_Linear, and RSMP_Weighted were the only Head-to-Head Tipsters recording that score, which allowed Bookie Knows Best and ENS_Linear to take a three tip lead over the field. They are now on 96.5 from 128 (75%) with MARS_Marg and RSMP_Weighted three tips further back on 93.5.
The all-Tipster average score came in at 5.1 from 7, taking the season-long figure to 90.2 from 128 (70%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay has ended at Hawks by 3 points and has new preliminary views on the Sunday games.
MoSHPlay has preliminary views about the remainder of the round.
MoSHPlay’s preliminary view on the Thursday night game is Fremantle by 11 points.
MoSHBODS’ average total this week is - as nature intended - lower than the bookmakers’ by about half a goal.
Read MoreJust seven games again this week but with all seven expected to be decided by three goals or less.
Five of them have home favourites with an average expected victory margin of 10.5 points per game, and two have away team favourites with an average expected victory margin of 9.5 points per game. Across all seven games, the average expected margin is a paltry 10.2 points per game.
Read MoreMoSHBODS changed the ranking of seven teams this week, but none in the top 4, which remain Fremantle, Geelong, Sydney, and Hawthorn.
Further down the order, the multi-spot movers were Melbourne (up 2 into 8th), Carlton (up 2 into 11th), and Western Bulldogs (down 4 into 13th)
MARS moved eight teams, which included swapping Geelong back into 1st, ahead of Fremantle. The only multi-spot mover was Western Bulldogs (down 2 into 11th).
Its final Top 3 are Geelong, Fremantle, and Sydney.
Read MoreSix of the seven early-week favourites won this week, which meant that the five non-contrarian Head-to-Head Tipsters scored six, leaving the RSMP twins and Consult the Ladder to score five, and Home Sweet Home four.
That left Bookie Knows Best and ENS_Linear as joint-leaders, now on 91 from 121 (75%) and still two tips ahead of MARS_Marg, with RSMP_Weighted now one tip further back in outright fourth.
The all-Tipster average score came in at 5.4 from 7, taking the season-long figure to 85.1 from 121 (70%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay has finished on Saints by 5 points.
MoSHPlay has finished on Lions by 48 points.
MoSHPlay has finished on Dees by 33 points.
MoSHPlay has finished on Dogs by 5 points and now has preliminary views on the remaining games in the round
MoSHPlay’s preliminary view of the Thursday night game is Dogs by 5 points
MoSHBODS’ average total this week is (checks notes) higher than the bookmakers’, thanks partly to a general lift in MoSHBODS’ forecasts but also to the prospect of rain in at least three of the matches.
Read MoreOnly seven games this week, with three expected to be decided by less than a goal, one by about three goals, one by about four goals, one by about five goals, and one by about seven-and-a-half goals.
with only two home favourites with an average expected victory margin of 31 points per game, and five away team favourites with an average expected victory margin of 12.9 points per game. Across all seven games, the average expected margin is 18.1 points per game.
Read MoreMoSHBODS changed the ranking of nine teams this week, which included swapping Fremantle into 1st, dropping Sydney into 3rd, and Hawthorn into 4th. Two very big movers were St Kilda up 4 into 7th, and Gold Coast down 4 into 11th.
In the end, MoSHBODS’ Top 3 are Fremantle, Geelong, and Sydney.
MARS moved 11 teams, which included swapping Fremantle into 1st, and dropping Geelong into 2nd, Sydney into 3rd, and Hawthorn into 4th.
Its final Top 3 are also Fremantle, Geelong, and Sydney.
Read MoreFive of the eight early-week favourites won this week, but only three of the nine Head-to-Head Tipsters were contrarian free, those being Bookie Knows Best (obviously), ENS_Linear and RSMP_Weighted.
Bookie Knows Best and ENS_Linear remain joint-leaders, now on 85 from 114 (74%) and two tips ahead of MARS_Marg and RSMP_Weighted.
The all-Tipster average score came in at 4.1 from 8, taking the season-long figure to 79.6 from 114 (70%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay’s preliminary view on tomorrow’s game is Pies by 4 points
MoSHPlay has finished with the Swans winning by 32 points
MoSHPlay has finished with the Hawks winning by 14 points and has some minor updates to its preliminary forecasts for the Sunday games
MoSHPlay has finished with the Cats winning by 9 points and now has preliminary views on all but the Monday game
Mercifully, there’s no Hinge 4 in the Thursday night preliminary forecast that has the Cats winning by a sensible 9 points
MoSHBODS’ average total this week is again very close to the bookmakers’, but with sizeable differences in either direction on individual games ranging as high as 13 points in the first game of the round, where rain is expected. It’s also expected in the second game, but the difference there is smaller.
Read MoreWe’re being fed something a little closer to our regular diet this week as just two teams have the bye. Across the eight games five of them expected to be won by a single digit margin, and the other four by between three-and-a-half and four-and-a-half goals.
There are three home favourites with an average expected victory margin of 18.8 points per game, and five away team favourites with an average expected victory margin of 13.7 points per game. Across all eight games, the average expected margin is 15.6 points per game..
Read MoreMoSHBODS changed the ranking of 10 teams this week, which included swapping 1st and 2nd, 3rd and 4th, and 5th and 6th, which left it with a Top 3 of Swans, Cats, and Hawks. The only multi-spot movers were Western Bulldogs up 2 into 9th, and St Kilda down 2 into 11th.
MARS moved only seven teams, and none in the Top 5. Its Top 3 then remains Cats, Swans, and Hawks. Its bir movers were GWS up 3 spots into 7th, and Melbourne down 4 spots into 12th.
Read MoreFour of the seven early-week favourites won this week, which meant that two-thirds of the Head-to-Head Tipsters scored exactly that, the exceptions being the MoSH twins’ three, and Consult The Ladders’ five.
Bookie Knows Best and ENS_Linear remain joint-leaders, now on 80 from 106 (75%), one tip ahead of MARS_Marg, and a further tip ahead of the RSMP twins.
The all-Tipster average score came in at 3.9 from 7, taking the season-long figure to 75.5 from 106 (71%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay has some updated, but still preliminary, views of the Sunday games.
(Some of you will have noticed - and a few of you have pointed it out online - that MoSHPlay has taken a particular liking for the Dees this week. The reason for the much-higher-than-expected estimated victory margin for Melbourne comes from understanding that MoSHPlay is a MARS model that comprises an intercept and 10 hinges that trigger given different ranges of the input variables and that each have a coefficient or multiplier than amplifies the difference between the threshold for the trigger’s firing and the actual. So, for example, if one hinge is h(Expected Margin - 10) that hinge will only trigger when the Expected Margin exceed 10 points. If that hinge carries a coefficient of 5 and the Expected Margin is 20, then the contribution of this hinge to the final margin forecast will be (20 - 10) x 5 = 50 points. If, instead, the Expected Margin is 5, that hinge will not trigger.
The variables used in MoSHPlay triggers are the MoSHBODS’ expected margin for the game, and the average of the ratings of the 22 best players for each team.
Two of the hinges carry quite large coefficients and tend to fire together and be somewhat offsetting. One of those hinges - the one with the largest coefficient - has historically only fired in 0.8% of games. It’s fired this week, along with the offsetting hinge, but the offseting has been somewhat minimal. As such, we initially had the Dees by 49 but now have them by “only” 33 points.
Whether this is a case of a game with outlying and/or unusual characteristics that is, accordingly, poorly estimated by the model, or a case of a genuine quirk identified by the model, only Sunday will tell.)
MoSHPlay’s has finished at Hawks by 11 points and has preliminary views of the remaining games in the round.
MoSHPlay’s initial view is Hawks by 11 points
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