2026 - Round 13 : Turnaround Time?

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We’re being fed something a little closer to our regular diet this week as just two teams have the bye. Across the eight games five of them expected to be won by a single digit margin, and the other four by between three-and-a-half and four-and-a-half goals.

There are three home favourites with an average expected victory margin of 18.8 points per game, and five away team favourites with an average expected victory margin of 13.7 points per game. Across all eight games, the average expected margin is 15.6 points per game.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

There are nine contrarian tips this week, five from Home Sweet Home, and one each from Consult the Ladder, RSMP_Simple, MoSHBODS_Marg, and MARS_Marg.

Amongst the Margin Predictors there are double-digit forecast ranges in five games this week, but none higher than the 14 points in the Essendon v Carlton clash.

Bookie_9 and MARS_Marg are Extreme Predictors in four games each this week, and MoSHBODS_Marg in three.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, only one game has a double-digit percentage point forecast range, and that’s 11% in the Collingwood v Melbourne game.

MARS_Prob is the Extreme Predictor in seven games this week, and MoSHBODS_Prob in four games.

WAGERS

Such high levels of agreement generally portend low levels of wagering, and that is indeed what we see this week as Investors face only three line bets totalling just over 2% of the original Line Fund and sized from 0.2% and 1.3% of that Fund.

The TGTBT rules have had no effect on this week’s wagering.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

We’ll skip the Ready Reckoner this week for a few manual calculations instead.

Sydney v St Kilda

  • Sydney wins by 27 points or more: 65% x 1.3% x 0.9 = +0.8%

  • Otherwise: -65% x 1.3% = -0.8%

Essendon v Carlton

  • Essendon wins, draws, or loses by 28 points or less: 65% x 0.6% x 1 = +0.4%

  • Otherwise: -65% x 0.6% = -0.4%

Collingwood v Melbourne

  • Collingwood wins, draws, or loses by 2 points or less: 65% x 0.2% x 0.9 = +0.1%

  • Otherwise: -65% x 0.2% = -0.1%

So, best case is an increase in the price of the Combined Portfolio by 1.3c, worst case a decrease by roughly the same amount, and Sydney needs to be a collect if there’s to be any profit at all.

To finish, here are MoSHBODS’ and MARS’ opinions about likely team scoring, margins and probabilities.

Commentary about the MoSHBODS’ Totals forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.