2026 - Round 13 : Overs/Unders

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MoSHBODS’ average total this week is again very close to the bookmakers’, but with sizeable differences in either direction on individual games ranging as high as 13 points in the first game of the round, where rain is expected. It’s also expected in the second game, but the difference there is smaller.

There’s complete agreement this week about everything except the lowest scoring game:

Highest Scoring Game

  • All: Gold Coast v Brisbane Lions

Lowest Scoring Game

  • MoSHBODS: West Coast v Port Adelaide

  • Bookmakers: Adelaide v Geelong

Highest Scoring Team

  • All: Sydney

Lowest Scoring Team

  • All: Essendon

WAGERS

MoSHBODS, unfettered, would have wagered on four contests this week, but one potential unders wager was ruled out by the TGTBT rule and two potential overs wagers were ruled out by the Rain rule.

Investors are left with just a single unders wager.

The estimated overlay for the unders wager is just under 6 points.

The practice of making unders bets only with sufficiently small overlays continues to be affirmed by the table at left that shows the accuracy of MoSHBODS on totals betting across different overlays.

There you can see that, in games where the overlay on an unders bet with the TAB is less than 6 points, MoSHBODS is on the right side 59% of the time.

The table provides no justification for overs betting with small overlays, but the sample size remains small.

Vindication of the veto rules is provided by the table at right shows what the Overs/Unders Fund would currently be worth had we enforced only some or all of the veto rules.

Last week the veto rules again prevented what would otherwise have been losses.

PREVIOUS WEEK

Last week saw the TAB take mean absolute error (MAE) honours for Game Margins, Away Team Scores and Game Totals, and Sportsbet do the same for Home Team Scores. That left the TAB with season-long leadership on Game Margins and Home Team Scores, and Sportsbet retain season-long leadership on Away Team Scores and Game Totals.

The leads in each race are now as follows:

  • Game Margins: TAB 5 points ahead of Sportsbet and 20 points ahead of MoSHBODS

  • Home Team Scores: TAB 6 points ahead of Sportsbet and 12 points ahead of MoSHBODS

  • Away Team Scores: Sportsbet 6 points ahead of the TAB, and 53 points ahead of MoSHBODS

  • Game Totals: Sportsbet 5 points ahead of the TAB, and 174 points ahead of MoSHBODS

Wagering and Game-by-Game Performance

There were four bets last weekend, unsuccessful unders bets with the TAB and Sportsbet, and two overs bets with the TAB that went 1 an 1.

That left MoSHBODS at 12 and 11 against the TAB and at 1 and 2 against Sportsbet.

Overall, MoSHBODS was on the right side of the TAB and Sportsbet in only 2 of the 7 games, taking it to 54 from 106 (51%) against the TAB, and 51 from 106 (48%) against Sportsbet.

The round-by-round performance is shown in the following table.