MoSHBODS’ average total this week is slightly higher than the bookmakers’, but the differences for individual games sit on either side of zero.

Its forecast of 197 points in the Lions v Swans game is comfortably its highest forecast of the season.

There’s agreement this week only about the likely highest scoring game:

Highest Scoring Game

All: Brisbane Lions v Sydney

Lowest Scoring Game

MoSHBODS: Port Adelaide v Adelaide
Bookmakers: Fremantle v Gold Coast (significant rain forecast)

Highest Scoring Team

MoSHBODS: Hawthorn
Bookmakers: Collingwood

Lowest Scoring Team

MoSHBODS: Richmond
Bookmakers: Gold Coast

WAGERS

MoSHBODS fancied six wagers this week, but had one half of them vetoed by the TGTBT rule.

The three surviving wagers comprise one unders totalling 1% of the original Overs/Unders Fund, and two overs totalling over 7% of that same Fund.

The estimated overlays for the wagers range from about 4.5 to 12 points.

The practice of making unders bets only with sufficiently small overlays continues to be affirmed by the table at left that shows the accuracy of MoSHBODS on totals betting across different overlays.

There you can see that, in games where the overlay on an unders bet with the TAB is less than 6 points, MoSHBODS is on the right side 58% of the time.

The table is beginning to provide some justification for overs betting with overlays of one to two goals, but the sample size remains small. Overs betting with smaller overlays is becoming firmly contraindicated.

Vindication of the veto rules is provided by the table at right shows what the Overs/Unders Fund would currently be worth had we enforced only some or all of the veto rules.

In short, our current small loss would have been considerably larger.

PREVIOUS WEEK

Last week was a very good one for MoSHBODS and saw it take mean absolute error (MAE) honours for Game Margins, Home Team Scores, and Game Totals, leaving Sportsbet to do the same for Away Team Scores. That had little effect on the season-long leaders, with the TAB still ahead on Home Team Scores, and Sportsbet still ahead on Away Team Scores and Game Totals. The only slight change is that the TAB has moved narrowly ahead of Sportsbet on Game Margins.

The leads in each race are now as follows:

Game Margins: TAB 2 points ahead of Sportsbet and 8 points ahead of MoSHBODS
Home Team Scores: TAB 5 points ahead of MoSHBODS and 8 points ahead of Sportsbet
Away Team Scores: Sportsbet 9 points ahead of the TAB, and 91 points ahead of MoSHBODS
Game Totals: Sportsbet 6 points ahead of the TAB, and 199 points ahead of MoSHBODS

Wagering and Game-by-Game Performance

There were three bets last weekend, a single successful unders with Sportsbet, a single unsuccessful overs with TAB and one successful and one unsuccessful unders wager with the TAB.

That left MoSHBODS at 14 and 13 against the TAB and moved it to 3 and 4 against Sportsbet.

Overall, MoSHBODS was on the right side of the TAB in 5 of the 7 games, taking it to 64 from 128 (50%) for the season, and the right side of Sportsbet in 4 of 7 games, taking it to and 59 from 128 (46%) for the season.

The round-by-round performance is shown in the following table.