2026 - Round 16 : A Little More Action
/Another round of seven games this week, with four expected to be decided by about three goals or less, one by about four-and-a-half goals, another by five goals, and the last by six goals.
Six of them have home favourites with an average expected victory margin of 21.2 points per game, and just one has an away team favourite with an expected victory margin of 17.5 points. Across all seven games, the average expected margin is 20.6 points per game, more than double last week’s average.
TIPS AND PREDICTIONS
Home Sweet Home has just the one contrarian tip this week, as does Consult the Ladder and the RSMP twins in the Lions v Swans game.
Amongst the Margin Predictors there is a double-digit forecast range in three games this week, most notably 14 points in the Collingwod v Richmond clash, and 13 points in the Adelaide derby.
Bookie_9 is Extreme Predictor in four games this week. No other Predictor is Extreme in more than two.
Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, there are no games with a double-digit forecast range. The largest range is only 6.4% in the North Melbourne v Essendon game.
MoSHBODS_Prob is the Extreme Predictors in five games this week, and Bookie_OE in four.
WAGERS
MoSHBODS has found three line and two head-to-head bets this week, the former totalling just under 4% of the original Line Fund, and the latter just over 1% of the original Head-to-Head Fund.
(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)
This week, a Ready Reckoner is in order.
So, best case is an increase in the price of the Combined Portfolio by 2.7c, worst case a decrease by 2.7c.
To finish, here are MoSHBODS’ and MARS’ opinions about likely team scoring, margins and probabilities.
Commentary about the MoSHBODS’ Totals forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.
