2026 - Team Ratings After Round 15
/MoSHBODS changed the ranking of eight teams this week, but none in the top 6 or the bottom 5. Its Top 3 remain Fremantle, Geelong, and Sydney.
Further down the order, the multi-spot movers were Carlton (up 4 into 7th), St Kilda (down 3 into 10th), Western Bulldogs (up 2 into 11th), and Gold Coast (down 2 into 12th)
MARS also kept its top 6 and bottom 5 unchanged, leaving Geelong, Fremantle, and Sydney as its Top 3.
Its multi-spot movers were Carlton (up 3 into 10th), GWS (down 2 into 9th), and Collingwood (down 2 into 12th).
MoSHBODS RATINGS
Overall, MoSHBODS now has 12 teams rated as above average.
On the Component Ratings, on offence we find MoSHBODS still with a Top 3 of Swans, Cats, and Lions, while on defence it now has a Top 3 of Dockers, Crows, and Hawks. Twelve teams are rated as above average on offence but only eight on defence.
Offensive ratings currently span a range of 1.48 standard deviations (up) and defensive ratings a range of 1.27 standard deviations (down). The standard deviation of offensive ratings across all teams is 0.41 and that for defensive ratings 0.33. Teams therefore continue to be more differentiated by their offensive abilities than their defensive abilities.
The correlation between the teams’ MoSHBODS offensive and defensive Ratings now stands at +0.69, which is about the same as last week.
We can put the MoSHBODS Ratings into an historical context by looking at the offensive and defensive ratings that teams in other seasons had after Round 15 (recognising that this will have meant different numbers of games per team in different years)
We see that the Dockers, Swans, Cats, and Hawks remain the only teams rated above the median for Grand Finalists at this point of the season in the context of history, but none is in the top decile.
We can also look at the trajectory that each team has taken so far in 2026 to arrive at their current rating.
MARS RATINGS
MARS now has 12 teams rated better-than-average, with St Kilda next best on 997.4.
As noted earlier, it has the same Top 3 as MoSHBODS, but puts Geelong ahead of Fremantle in 1st.
The gap from 1st to 2nd is now 1.7 Rating Points (up), from 1st to 4th is 10.5 Rating Points (down), and from 1st to 10th is 32.5 Rating Points (down).
Across all 18 teams, the Ratings span 89.2 Rating Points (up), the mean is 1,000 Rating Points, and the standard deviation is 25.5 Rating Points (up).
COMPARISON OF MOSHBODS AND MARS
The correlation between MoSHBODS’ Combined Ratings and MARS’ Ratings stands at +0.987 and, roughly speaking, each team’s Combined MoSHBODS Rating is about 0.026 times its MARS Rating less 26.2.
Looking firstly at the comparison between the ordering of the teams on MoSHBODS and MARS compared to their ordering on the competition ladder we see that the teams with the largest discrepancies are:
HIGHER ON THE LADDER THAN ON THE TEAM RATING SYSTEMS
North Melbourne and Western Bulldogs
HIGHER ON THE TEAM RATING SYSTEMS THAN ON THE LADDER
Maybe Carlton
MoSHBODS and MARS agree about the ranking of 10 teams now, and differ by at least three spots on five teams, most of all on Gold Coast, who MARS have 7th and MoSHBODS have 12th.
Overall, the rank correlation between the two Systems is +0.92.
