2026 - Team Ratings After Round 13

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MoSHBODS changed the ranking of nine teams this week, which included swapping Fremantle into 1st, dropping Sydney into 3rd, and Hawthorn into 4th. Two very big movers were St Kilda up 4 into 7th, and Gold Coast down 4 into 11th.

In the end, MoSHBODS’ Top 3 are Fremantle, Geelong, and Sydney.

MARS moved 11 teams, which included swapping Fremantle into 1st, and dropping Geelong into 2nd, Sydney into 3rd, and Hawthorn into 4th.

Its final Top 3 are also Fremantle, Geelong, and Sydney.

MoSHBODS RATINGS

Overall, MoSHBODS still has 13 teams rated as above average.

On the Component Ratings, on offence we find MoSHBODS still with a Top 3 of Swans, Cats, and Lions, while on defence it now has a Top 3 of Dockers, Hawks, and Crows. Twelve teams are rated as above average on offence but only seven on defence.

Offensive ratings currently span a range of 1.46 standard deviations (down) and defensive ratings a range of 1.33 standard deviations (up). The standard deviation of offensive ratings across all teams is 0.39 and that for defensive ratings 0.34. Teams therefore continue to be more differentiated by their offensive abilities than their defensive abilities, but the gap is closing.

The correlation between the teams’ MoSHBODS offensive and defensive Ratings now stands at +0.69, which is about the same as last week.

We can put the MoSHBODS Ratings into an historical context by looking at the offensive and defensive ratings that teams in other seasons had after Round 13 (recognising that this will have meant different numbers of games per team in different years)

We see that the Dockers, Swans, Cats, and Hawks remain the only teams rated above the median for Grand Finalists at this point of the season in the context of history, but none is in the top decile.

We can also look at the trajectory that each team has taken so far in 2026 to arrive at their current rating.

MARS RATINGS

MARS now has 11 teams rated better-than-average, with St Kilda next best on 999.2 and Carlton not far back on 998.6.

As noted earlier, it has the same Top 3 as MoSHBODS.

The gap from 1st to 2nd is now only 1 Rating Points (down), from 1st to 4th is 10.6 Rating Points (up), and from 1st to 10th is 31.9 Rating Points (up).

Across all 18 teams, the Ratings span 85.9 Rating Points (up), the mean is 1,000 Rating Points, and the standard deviation is 24.9 Rating Points (up).

COMPARISON OF MOSHBODS AND MARS

The correlation between MoSHBODS’ Combined Ratings and MARS’ Ratings stands at +0.987 and, roughly speaking, each team’s Combined MoSHBODS Rating is about 0.027 times its MARS Rating less 26.6.

Looking firstly at the comparison between the ordering of the teams on MoSHBODS and MARS compared to their ordering on the competition ladder we see that the teams with the largest discrepancies are:

HIGHER ON THE LADDER THAN ON THE TEAM RATING SYSTEMS

  • Melbourne

HIGHER ON THE TEAM RATING SYSTEMS THAN ON THE LADDER

  • Brisbane Lions

MoSHBODS and MARS agree about the ranking of 14 teams now, but differ by at least three spots on the four remaining teams.

The biggest difference is five spots for St Kilda, who MoSHBODS rank 7th and MARS 12th.

Overall, the rank correlation between the two Systems is +0.932.