2026 - Round 14 : Last Chance for MoSHPlay?

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Only seven games this week, with three expected to be decided by less than a goal, one by about three goals, one by about four goals, one by about five goals, and one by about seven-and-a-half goals.

with only two home favourites with an average expected victory margin of 31 points per game, and five away team favourites with an average expected victory margin of 12.9 points per game. Across all seven games, the average expected margin is 18.1 points per game.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

There are five contrarian tips this week, two from Home Sweet Home, and one each from Consult the Ladder and the RSMP twins.

Amongst the Margin Predictors there is a double-digit forecast range in only one game this week: 19 points in the Richmond v Brisbane Lions clash.

Bookie_3 is Extreme Predictor in four games each this week, and MoSHBODS_Marg in three.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, no game has a double-digit percentage point forecast range.

MoSHBODS_Prob is the Extreme Predictor in six games this week, and MARS_Prob in four games.

WAGERS

It’s an even quieter week of wagering this week, again with no interference from the TGTBT rules.

Investors have just two wagers, both in the line market, a larger one on Geelong, and a smaller one on St Kilda. Together they represent just under 2.5% of the original Line Fund.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

We’ll skip the Ready Reckoner again this week an stay manual.

Geelong v Gold Coast

  • Geelong wins by 26 points or more: 65% x 1.5% x 0.9 = +0.9%

  • Otherwise: -65% x 1.5% = -1.0%

St Kilda v GWS

  • St Kilda wins by 4 points or more: 65% x 0.9% x 0.9 = +0.5%

  • Otherwise: -65% x 0.9% = -0.6%

So, best case is an increase in the price of the Combined Portfolio by 1.4c, worst case a decrease by 1.6c.

To finish, here are MoSHBODS’ and MARS’ opinions about likely team scoring, margins and probabilities.

Commentary about the MoSHBODS’ Totals forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.