MoSHBODS’ average total this week is (checks notes) higher than the bookmakers’, thanks partly to a general lift in MoSHBODS’ forecasts but also to the prospect of rain in at least three of the matches.

There’s agreement this week only about the likely highest scoring team:

Highest Scoring Game

MoSHBODS: Richmond v Brisbane Lions
Bookmakers: St Kilda v GWS

Lowest Scoring Game

MoSHBODS: Western Bulldogs v Adelaide
Bookmakers: Melbourne v Essendon

Highest Scoring Team

All: Brisbane Lions

Lowest Scoring Team

MoSHBODS: Richmond
Bookmakers: Essendon

WAGERS

MoSHBODS fancied four wagers this week, but one potential overs wager was ruled out by the Rain rule.

Investors are left with three wagers, two of them overs.

The estimated overlays for the wagers are all about 4 or 5 points.

PREVIOUS WEEK

Last week saw Sportsbet take mean absolute error (MAE) honours for Game Margins, Away Team Scores and Game Totals, and MoSHBODS do the same for Home Team Scores. That left the TAB still with season-long leadership on Game Margins and Home Team Scores, and Sportsbet still with season-long leadership on Away Team Scores and Game Totals.

The leads in each race are now as follows:

Game Margins: TAB 4 points ahead of Sportsbet and 20 points ahead of MoSHBODS
Home Team Scores: TAB 8 points ahead of Sportsbet and 10 points ahead of MoSHBODS
Away Team Scores: Sportsbet 7 points ahead of the TAB, and 63 points ahead of MoSHBODS
Game Totals: Sportsbet 6 points ahead of the TAB, and 183 points ahead of MoSHBODS

Wagering and Game-by-Game Performance

There was one bet last weekend, a successful unders bet with the TAB.

That left MoSHBODS at 13 and 11 against the TAB and at 1 and 2 against Sportsbet.

Overall, MoSHBODS was on the right side of the TAB in only 3 of the 8 games, taking it to 57 from 114 (50%) for the season. It was on the right side of Sportsbet in only 2 games, taking it to 53 from 114 (46%) against them.

The round-by-round performance is shown in the following table.