2026 - Team Ratings After Round 14

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MoSHBODS changed the ranking of seven teams this week, but none in the top 4, which remain Fremantle, Geelong, Sydney, and Hawthorn.

Further down the order, the multi-spot movers were Melbourne (up 2 into 8th), Carlton (up 2 into 11th), and Western Bulldogs (down 4 into 13th)

MARS moved eight teams, which included swapping Geelong back into 1st, ahead of Fremantle. The only multi-spot mover was Western Bulldogs (down 2 into 11th).

Its final Top 3 are Geelong, Fremantle, and Sydney.

MoSHBODS RATINGS

Overall, MoSHBODS now has only 11 teams rated as above average.

On the Component Ratings, on offence we find MoSHBODS still with a Top 3 of Swans, Cats, and Lions, while on defence it still has a Top 3 of Dockers, Hawks, and Crows. Twelve teams are rated as above average on offence but only seven on defence.

Offensive ratings currently span a range of 1.42 standard deviations (down) and defensive ratings a range of 1.32 standard deviations (down). The standard deviation of offensive ratings across all teams is 0.39 and that for defensive ratings 0.34. Teams therefore continue to be more differentiated by their offensive abilities than their defensive abilities.

The correlation between the teams’ MoSHBODS offensive and defensive Ratings now stands at +0.69, which is about the same as last week.

We can put the MoSHBODS Ratings into an historical context by looking at the offensive and defensive ratings that teams in other seasons had after Round 14 (recognising that this will have meant different numbers of games per team in different years)

We see that the Dockers, Swans, Cats, and Hawks remain the only teams rated above the median for Grand Finalists at this point of the season in the context of history, but none is in the top decile. We also see that Richmond is tumbling towards all-time lows.

We can also look at the trajectory that each team has taken so far in 2026 to arrive at their current rating.

MARS RATINGS

MARS now has 11 teams rated better-than-average, with St Kilda next best on 999.9 and Carlton not far back on 998.6.

As noted earlier, it has the same Top 3 as MoSHBODS, but puts Geelong ahead of Fremantle in 1st.

The gap from 1st to 2nd is now 1.6 Rating Points (up), from 1st to 4th is 12.2 Rating Points (up), and from 1st to 10th is 33.8 Rating Points (up).

Across all 18 teams, the Ratings span 87.2 Rating Points (up), the mean is 1,000 Rating Points, and the standard deviation is 25.3 Rating Points (up).

COMPARISON OF MOSHBODS AND MARS

The correlation between MoSHBODS’ Combined Ratings and MARS’ Ratings stands at +0.988 and, roughly speaking, each team’s Combined MoSHBODS Rating is about 0.026 times its MARS Rating less 26.3.

Looking firstly at the comparison between the ordering of the teams on MoSHBODS and MARS compared to their ordering on the competition ladder we see that the teams with the largest discrepancies are:

HIGHER ON THE LADDER THAN ON THE TEAM RATING SYSTEMS

  • North Melbourne (and maybe Western Bulldogs and Melbourne)

HIGHER ON THE TEAM RATING SYSTEMS THAN ON THE LADDER

  • Maybe Collingwood

MoSHBODS and MARS agree about the ranking of nine teams now, and differ by at least three spots on just two teams: GWS, who MoSHBODS rank 12th and MARS 7th, and St Kilda, who MoSHBODS rank 7th and MARS 12th.

Overall, the rank correlation between the two Systems is +0.932.