2026 - Round 15 : MoSHBODS = Bookmaker (approx.)

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Just seven games again this week but with all seven expected to be decided by three goals or less.

Five of them have home favourites with an average expected victory margin of 10.5 points per game, and two have away team favourites with an average expected victory margin of 9.5 points per game. Across all seven games, the average expected margin is a paltry 10.2 points per game.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

Expected close games offer the promise of contrarian head-to-head tips, but this week sees them coming mostly from the usual source, Home Sweet Home (3 games) and the only one each from Consult the Ladder, MoSHBODS_Marg, and MARS_Marg.

Those contrarian tips in the Saints v Dogs game are only contrarian of a fashion because the TAB head-to-head prices are $1.90/$1.90, which means Bookie Knows Best - based on the tips of which contrarianism is defined - takes on Consult the Ladder’s tip.

Amongst the Margin Predictors there is a double-digit forecast range in only one game this week: 14 points in the Richmond v North Melbourne clash.

MoSHBODS_Marg and MARS_Marg are Extreme Predictors in three games each this week. No-one else is Extreme in more than two.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, there is a double-digit forecast range in only one game this week: 13% points in the Richmond v North Melbourne clash..

MoSHBODS_Prob and MARS_Prob are the Extreme Predictors in five games each this week.

WAGERS

So aligned are MoSHBODS and the bookmakers this week that only a single wager is possible: 0.7% on St Kilda with half a point start.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

We’ll skip the Ready Reckoner again this week for obvious reasons

St Kilda v Western Bulldogs

  • St Kilda wins: 65% x 0.7% x 0.9 = +0.4%

  • Otherwise: -65% x 0.7% = -0.5%

So, best case is an increase in the price of the Combined Portfolio by 0.4c, worst case a decrease by 0.5c.

To finish, here are MoSHBODS’ and MARS’ opinions about likely team scoring, margins and probabilities.

Commentary about the MoSHBODS’ Totals forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.