WoSHBODS and the two bookmakers ended up with 6 from 9 correct tips this week, which took WoSHBODS’ season-long record to 45 from 63 (71%).
WoSHBODS also recorded a Margin MAE of 23.2 points per game (compared to 22.7 and 22.5 for the bookmakers) and a Totals MAE of 14.4 points per game (compared to around 15 for both bookmakers).
The LPS of +3.1 bits compares to +3.0 bits for the bookmakers.
All told then, another very acceptable round.
Read MoreWoSHBODS has taken:
St Kilda v Port Adelaide: 1.3% o80.5 @ $1.90*
Adelaide v Sydney: 0.4% u87.5 @ $1.85
Carlton v Fremantle: 0.1% u87.5 @ $1.85
Western Bulldogs v Collingwood: 0.8% u81.5 @ $1.87
The TAB were offering o77.5 @ $1.90 but, after I submitted the wager, rejected it, closed the market to me, and then reopened it at 80.5. Shenanigans, Shenanigans.
WoSHBODS has taken:
Essendon v North Melbourne: 3.5% u87.5 @ $1.87
Carlton v Fremantle: 0.1% u80.5 @ $1.87
It passed on an overs bet in the Melbourne v Gold Coast due to forecast persistent showers
This year’s post Round 5 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:
For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal
North Melbourne: virtually certain of being finalists; virtually certain of Top 4; virtually certain of being Minor Premier
Melbourne: virtually certain of being finalists; around 90% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier
Hawthorn, Brisbane, and Adelaide: about 95% chance of being finalists; around 40-60% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier
Carlton and Geelong: about 85% chance of being finalists; around 25-30% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier
Sydney: about 60% chance of being finalists; around 5% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier
Fremantle, Collingwood, and St Kilda: around 15-30% chances of being finalists; around 1% to <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier
West Coast, Port Adelaide, and Western Bulldogs: around 5-10% chance of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier
Essendon, GWS, Richmond, and Gold Coast: <1% chance of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier
According to the bookmakers, Round 7 of the AFLW comprises:
Six games expected to be decided by less than two goals
Two games expected to be decided by between about 34 and 38 points
One game expected to be decided by about 50 points..
Below are WoSHBODS’ thoughts about the nine games of the round, which sees just one underdog (Port Adelaide) winning.
The TAB bookmaker’s average expected victory margin is about 18 points, while WoSHBODS’ is about 23 points per game.
Read MoreWoSHBODS tipped only favourites this week, and so ended up with 8 from 9 correct selections, mirroring the bookmakers.
WoSHBODS also recorded a Margin MAE of just 18.4 points per game (compared to 19.6 for the bookmakers) and a Totals MAE of 8.9 points per game (compared to 9.6 for both bookmakers).
The LPS of +2.2 bits compares to +2.4 and +2.5 bits for the bookmakers.
All told then, a very acceptable round.
Read MoreThere are forecasts of “possible showers” and “medium chance of showers” in Melbourne and Adelaide, but they don’t sound like enough to preclude WoSHBODS from taking overs at Victoria Park and Alberton Oval.
Accordingly, it has taken:
Collingwood v Hawthorn: 0.9% o65.5 @ $1.87 (estimated overlay 3.9 points)
Port Adelaide v Geelong: 4.3% o77.5 @ $1.85 (estimated overlay 14.5 points)
Collingwood v Hawthorn: 0.5% o74.5 @ $1.87 (estimated overlay 3 points)
WoSHBODS has taken:
Sydney v GWS: 0.3% o90.5 @ $1.85 (estimated overlay 3.1 points)
It passed on taking o71.5 in the Melbourne v West Coast game due to a forecast of “showers” (rather than “possible showers”)
According to the bookmakers, Round 6 of the AFLW comprises:
Two games expected to be decided by less than two goals
Three games expected to be decided by between two and three goals
Four games expected to be decided by between about four-and-a-half and just over six goals.
Below are WoSHBODS’ thoughts about the nine games of the round, which sees all nine favourites winning.
The TAB bookmaker’s average expected victory margin is about 22 points, while WoSHBODS’ is just under 25 points per game.
Read MoreThis year’s post Round 5 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:
For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal
North Melbourne: virtually certain of being finalists; virtually certain of Top 4; virtually certain of being Minor Premier
Melbourne: virtually certain of being finalists; around 80% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier
Hawthorn, Brisbane, and Adelaide: about 90-95% chance of being finalists; around 40-55% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier
Sydney, Carlton, and Geelong: about 75-85% chance of being finalists; around 20-30% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier
Collingwood and West Coast: around 15-25% chances of being finalists; around 1-2% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier
Fremantle, St Kilda, Port Adelaide, and Western Bulldogs: around 5-15% chance of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier
Essendon: around 2% chance of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier
Richmond, GWS, and Gold Coast: <1% chance of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier
WoSHBODS, like the TAB, tipped only four from nine winners this week, while Sportsbet managed five.
WoSHBODS also recorded a Margin MAE of just 25.3 points per game (compared to 24.9 and 25.2 for the bookmakers) and a Totals MAE of 12.6 points per game (compared to 16.9 for both bookmakers).
The LPS of -2.4 bits compares to -2.4 and -2.5 bits for the bookmakers.
Read MoreWoSHPlay has taken:
Essendon v St Kilda: u80.5 for 0.1% @ $1.85
Brisbane v North Melbourne: u92.5 for 3.8% @ $1.87
WoSHPlay has taken:
Collingwood v Sydney: o74.5 for 3% @ $1.87
Carlton v Gold Coast: o86.5 for 0.6% @ $1.87
GWS v Western Bulldogs: u83.5 for 1.3% @ $1.87
(There is a chance of rain in the Collingwood game, which might explain why the line dropped 5 points in about 10 minutes after being originally posted at 79.5)
According to the bookmakers, Round 5 of the AFLW comprises:
Three games expected to be decided by less than two goals
Three games expected to be decided by between two and three goals
Three games expected to be decided by between three-and-a-half and just over four goals.
Below are WoSHBODS’ thoughts about the nine games of the round, which includes one underdog win (Hawthorn) and one maybe underdog win depending on who you talk to (Fremantle).
The TAB bookmaker’s average expected victory margin is 14.4 points, while WoSHBODS’ is 17.7 points per game.
Read MoreThis year’s post Round 5 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:
For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal
North Melbourne: virtually certain of being finalists; virtually certain of Top 4; roughly 90% chances of being Minor Premier
Melbourne: virtually certain of being finalists; around 80% chances of Top 4; roughly 5% chances of being Minor Premier
Sydney and Hawthorn: about 95% chance of being finalists; around 60% chances of Top 4; roughly 2-3% chances of being Minor Premier
Brisbane: about 95% chance of being finalists; around 45% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier
Carlton, Adelaide and Geelong: about 65-75% chance of being finalists; around 15% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier
West Coast, Essendon, and Western Bulldogs: around 20-30% chances of being finalists; around 1-3% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier
Fremantle, Port Adelaide, Collingwood, and St Kilda: around 5-10% chance of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier
Richmond, Gold Coast, and GWS: <1% chance of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier
WoSHBODS tipped seven from nine winners again this week, which was again one better than the bookmakers. It also recorded a Margin MAE of just 9.8 points per game (compared to 12.1 and 12.3 for the bookmakers) and a Totals MAE of 24.7 points per game (compared to 22.1 for both bookmakers).
The LPS of 2.9 bits per game compares to 3.3 bits per game for the bookmakers.
Read MoreWoSHBODS has taken:
North Melbourne v Collingwood: 3.9% u83.5 @ $1.85
(WoSHBODS would have taken the overs in the Essendon and West Coast games, but showers are forecast)
WoSHBODS has taken:
Gold Coast v GWS: 4.1% o78.5 @ $1.87 (there is a medium chance of showers forecast for the Gold Coast, but they are considered to be ‘less likely in the afternoon’)
According to the bookmakers, Round 4 of the AFLW comprises:
Four games expected to be decided by less than a goal
Two games expected to be decided by between two and three goals
Two games expected to be decided by just over four goals
One game expected to be decided by just under eight goals
Below are WoSHBODS’ thoughts about the nine games of the round, which includes one underdog win (Brisbane) and one maybe underdog win depending on who you talk to (Port Adelaide).
The TAB bookmaker’s average expected victory margin is 16.3 points, while WoSHBODS’ is 19.3 points per game.
Read MoreThis year’s post Round 3 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:
For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal
Also, note that these are early-season estimates and are therefore likely to have large standard errors associated with them. I expect them to change significantly over the next few weeks.
North Melbourne: virtually certain of being finalists; virtually certain of Top 4; roughly 90% chances of being Minor Premier
Melbourne: virtually certain of being finalists; around 80% chances of Top 4; roughly 5% chances of being Minor Premier
Hawthorn and Sydney: about 90-95% chance of being finalists; around 60% chances of Top 4; roughly 2-3% chances of being Minor Premier
Adelaide and Brisbane: about 80-85% chance of being finalists; around 30% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier
Carlton: about 70% chances of being finalists; around 15% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier
Essendon, Western Bulldogs, and Geelong: around 40-45% chances of being finalists; around 5-10% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier
Port Adelaide and West Coast: around 15-25% chances of being finalists; around 2-4% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier
Fremantle, Collingwood, St Kilda, and Richmond: around 2-10% chance of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier
GWS and Gold Coast: <1% chance of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier
WoSHBODS tipped seven from nine winners this week, while the bookmakers tipped six, and recorded a Margin MAE of 26.7 points per game (compared to 28.2 to 28.3 for the bookmakers) and a Totals MAE of 24.1 points per game (compared to 24.8 to 24.9 for the bookmakers)
The LPS of 2.1 bits per game compares to 1.8 to 2.1 bits per game for the bookmakers.
Read MoreWoSHBODS sees value in all three of today’s games and has taken:
Collingwood v Melbourne: 3.2% u84.5 $1.90
Fremantle v North Melbourne: 3% u81.5 $1.87
Brisbane v Carlton: 0.4% o79.5 $1.87
There are forecasts for rain in a number of the Melbourne-based games today, but that rain seems likely to have cleared by game time, so WoSHBODS has taken the overs in those games. It’s also taken the overs in the Adelaide game, and the unders in the Sydney game:
GWS v Adelaide: 1.9% u89.5 $1.85
St Kilda v West Coast: 0.3% o68.5 $1.87
Geelong v Sydney: 1.4% o83.5 $1.90
Port Adelaide v Gold Coast: 1.2% o80.5 $1.87
Western Bulldogs v Hawthorn: 2.7% o70.5 $1.87
WoSHBODS has taken:
Richmond v Essendon: 1.8% o72.5 $1.90
Round 3 of the AFLW looks a lot less competitive than Round 2, with the early markets for three games suggesting that their final game margin will be under two goals, two more games expected to finish with a margin in the two to four goal range, and the remaining four games expected to finish with a margin of over four goals.
Below are WoSHBODS’ thoughts about the nine games of the round, which includes just a single underdog win (Sydney).
The TAB bookmaker’s average expected victory margin is 20.8 points, while WoSHBODS’ is 25.4 points per game.
Read MoreThis year’s post Round 2 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:
For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal
Also, note that these are early-season estimates and are therefore likely to have large standard errors associated with them. I expect them to change significantly over the next few weeks.
North Melbourne: virtually certain of being finalists; around 95% chances of Top 4; roughly 60% chances of being Minor Premier
Melbourne: virtually certain of being finalists; around 85% chances of Top 4; roughly 25% chances of being Minor Premier
Hawthorn, Brisbane, and Sydney: about 90-95% chance of being finalists; around 45-65% chances of Top 4; roughly 4-8% chances of being Minor Premier
Adelaide: about 80% chance of being finalists; around 25% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier
Geelong and Essendon: 45-50% chances of being finalists; around 5-10% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier
Western Bulldogs, Fremantle, Carlton, and St Kilda: 25-30% chances of being finalists; around 1-3% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier
Port Adelaide and West Coast: around 10-15% chance of being finalists; <1-1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier
Collingwood, Richmond, and GWS: around 2-3% chance of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier
Gold Coast: <1% chance of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier
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