WoSHBODS tipped only favourites this week, and so ended up with 8 from 9 correct selections, mirroring the bookmakers.

WoSHBODS also recorded a Margin MAE of just 18.4 points per game (compared to 19.6 for the bookmakers) and a Totals MAE of 8.9 points per game (compared to 9.6 for both bookmakers).

The LPS of +2.2 bits compares to +2.4 and +2.5 bits for the bookmakers.

All told then, a very acceptable round.

The cumulative season-long results appear below.

Overall, we’re now at 72% accuracy for the season, 24.9 Margin MAE, and 16.6 Totals MAE, which remains very acceptable.

WAGERS

Whilst Adelaide’s inability to win big was a disappointment, the Line Fund still managed to return a profit for the week, as did the Overs/Unders Fund. Combined, they did enough to more than offset the losses of the Head-to-Head Fund.

At weeks’ end, the Combined Portfolio is now down by just 4.4c on a -6% ROI and a 0.69 turn.

TEAM DASHBOARD

The Team Dashboard metric rankings appear below and reveal that the metric rankings most associated with ladder position are:

WoS Win Production Function: +0.94
Percentage of Quarters Won: +0.79
Q3 Performances: +0.78
Points Conceded: +0.75
Goals Conceded: +0.75
Goals Scored: +0.73
Scoring Shots Conceded: +0.7

The metrics least associated with ladder position are:

Own Scoring Shot Conversion: +0.36
Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion: +0.36
Q4 Performances: +0.43

The full Team Dashboard appears below, and reveals that, among other things:

North Melbourne are yet to lose a Q2.
Richmond are yet to win a Q2.
North Melbourne have outscored their opponents by roughly 3:1 or more in every quarter
They and Melbourne are the only teams to have outscored their opponents in every quarter
The only teams to have been outscored by their opponents in every quarter are Fremantle, Gold Coast, GWS, Richmond, and Western Bulldogs.
North Melbourne, Melbourne, and Sydney are the only teams to have generated more scoring than their opponents in each of the four quarters
Fremantle, Gold Coast, GWS, and Richmond are the only teams to have generated fewer scoring than their opponents in each of the four quarters
Hawthorn, in 3rd place, has scored, in aggregate, just 183 points across all six games, while Richmond, in 18th place, has scored 172 points. They, and the Western Bulldogs in 16th, are the only teams on the ladder to have scored fewer points than Hawthorn.