AFLW 2025 - Round 7

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According to the bookmakers, Round 7 of the AFLW comprises:

  • Six games expected to be decided by less than two goals

  • Two games expected to be decided by between about 34 and 38 points

  • One game expected to be decided by about 50 points..

Below are WoSHBODS’ thoughts about the nine games of the round, which sees just one underdog (Port Adelaide) winning.

The TAB bookmaker’s average expected victory margin is about 18 points, while WoSHBODS’ is about 23 points per game.

Here’s some detail about WoSHBODS’ views:

WoSHBODS Wagering

There was remarkably little shenaniganry this week as Investors only failed to secure what they wanted in the Melbourne v Gold Coast game. There they were seeking 4.6% on Melbourne -37.5 at $1.87 but they were forced to accept lines from -37.5 to -39.5 and prices of $1.87 and $1.88. The details are in the Ready Reckoner below.

In aggregate, WoSHBODS has just four head-to-head wagers this week, in sizes ranging from 0.1% to 0.8% of the original Head-to-Head Fund and totalling only just over 1% of that Fund.

It also has line wagers in six games, in sizes ranging from 0.1% to 4.5% of the original Line Fund and totalling just over 11% of that Fund.

Aggregated, that means around 7.5% of the entire Combined Portfolio is at risk this weekend.

We can see how that risk is spread across games and teams by referring to the Ready Reckoner below.

The most important results for Investors this weekend come in the Melbourne v Gold Coast and Essendon v North Melbourne games. A Melbourne win of 40 points or more would add 2.5c to the price of the Combined Portfolio, while a win by anything less than 38 points (including a draw or a loss) would lop 2.9c off the price of the Combined Portfolio.

Also, a North Melbourne win of 50 points or more would add 2.4c to the price of the Combined Portfolio, while any other result would trim 2.7c off the price of the Combined Portfolio.

For the other games, the differences between best and worst outcomes are:

  • Brisbane (v Richmond): 1.5c swing

  • Western Bulldogs (v Collingwood): 1.1c swing

  • Geelong (v Hawthorn): 1c swing

  • Adelaide (v Sydney): 0.2c swing

  • GWS (v West Coast): 0.08c swing

  • Port Adelaide (v St Kilda): 0.05c swing

Altogther, about 7.5% of the Combined Portfolio is at risk across all 10 wagers, and a best case set of results would see that risk rewarded by a lift in the Portfolio price of just under 7c.