AFLW 2025 - Simulations After Round 5

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This year’s post Round 5 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal

  1. North Melbourne: virtually certain of being finalists; virtually certain of Top 4; roughly 90% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Melbourne: virtually certain of being finalists; around 80% chances of Top 4; roughly 5% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Sydney and Hawthorn: about 95% chance of being finalists; around 60% chances of Top 4; roughly 2-3% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Brisbane: about 95% chance of being finalists; around 45% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Carlton, Adelaide and Geelong: about 65-75% chance of being finalists; around 15% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. West Coast, Essendon, and Western Bulldogs: around 20-30% chances of being finalists; around 1-3% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. Fremantle, Port Adelaide, Collingwood, and St Kilda: around 5-10% chance of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  8. Richmond, Gold Coast, and GWS: <1% chance of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

LADDER FINISHES

The home and away ladder and Finals projections appear below.

We have 11 teams with a 1-in-5 or better chance of finishing Top 8, and five with about or better than a 4-in-9 chance of finishing Top 4.

It still looks as though 6.5 to 7 wins will be what’s required by most teams to make the Final 8 although 7.5 wins would provide nearer certainty.

FORECASTS FOR THE FINALS

Looking next at Finals prospects, we have:

Flag favouritism is currently, in order (with fair prices shown in brackets):

  • North Melbourne (about $1.30)

  • Melbourne and Brisbane (about $16.70)

  • Sydney (about $25)

COMBINATIONS AND PERMUTATIONS IN TOP X TEAMS

In the latest 10,000 simulation replicates there were:

  • 10,000 different Top 18s

  • 7,997 different Top 8s (which contain 454 unique sets of 8 teams in some order of a maximum possible 43,758 or about 1%)

  • 623 different Top 4s (which contain 139 unique sets of 4 teams in some order of a maximum possible 3,060 or about 4.5%)

LIKELY IMPORTANCE OF PERCENTAGE

As the final table for this week, we’ll use the simulations to investigate the estimated likelihood that any given pair of ladder positions will be determined after Round 12 based on percentage.

So, our current estimates are:

  • There’s almost a 1-in-2 chance that 8th will be decided on percentages (48% up from 47%)

  • There’s about a 9-in-20 chance that 4th will be decided on percentages (45% up from 43%)

  • There’s still only about a 1-in-5 chance that 1st will be decided on percentages (21% unchanged)