AFLW 2025 - Round 5

/

According to the bookmakers, Round 5 of the AFLW comprises:

  • Three games expected to be decided by less than two goals

  • Three games expected to be decided by between two and three goals

  • Three games expected to be decided by between three-and-a-half and just over four goals.

Below are WoSHBODS’ thoughts about the nine games of the round, which includes one underdog win (Hawthorn) and one maybe underdog win depending on who you talk to (Fremantle).

The TAB bookmaker’s average expected victory margin is 14.4 points, while WoSHBODS’ is 17.7 points per game.

Here’s some detail about WoSHBODS’ views:

WoSHBODS Wagering

It seems we are now shenanigan assured, particularly when venturing into the line markets.

As usual, the graphic on the right sets down what we wanted when we first spotted the markets, and what we eventually secured after waltzing with the bookmakers.

When the music stopped, WoSHBODS had head-to-head wagers in seven games, in sizes ranging from 0.1% to 3% of the original Head-to-Head Fund and totalling just under 7% of that Fund.

It also had line wagers in six games, in sizes ranging from 0.4% to 2.7% of the original Line Fund and totalling just over 9% of that Fund.

Aggregated, that means around 7.5% of the entire Combined Portfolio is at risk this weekend.

We can see how that risk is spread across games and teams by referring to the Ready Reckoner below (the manual construction of which is quickly becoming one of my least favourite tasks of the week).

The most important result for Investors this week is that from the GWS v Western Bulldogs game where a Dogs win by 14 points or more would add 1.7c to the price of the Combined Portfolio, and a loss of any size would lop 2.4c off the price of the Combined Portfolio.

For the other games, the differences between best and worst outcomes are:

  • North Melbourne (v Brisbane): 3.8c swing

  • Carlton (v Gold Coast): 3c swing

  • Collingwood (v Sydney): 1.8c swing

  • Hawthorn (v Adelaide): 0.9c swing

  • Richmond (v Geelong): 0.4c swing

  • Port Adelaide v Melbourne: 0.3c swing

That final game has a head-to-head wager on Port Adelaide and a line wager on Melbourne - a very rare occurrence of losing most for a result in the middle.

Altogther,about 7.5% of the Combined Portfolio is at risk across all 13 wagers, and a best case set of results would see that risk rewarded by a lift in the Portfolio price of 7c.