AFLW 2025 - Round 4 Results - It's a Grind

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WoSHBODS tipped seven from nine winners again this week, which was again one better than Sportsbet, but this week equal to the TAB. It also recorded a Margin MAE of just 13.8 points per game (compared to 15.4 and 15.6 for the bookmakers) and a Totals MAE of 10.1 points per game (compared to 15.6 for both bookmakers).

The LPS of 2.9 bits per game compares to 3.5 and 3.6 bits per game for the bookmakers.

The cumulative season-long results appear below.

Overall, we’re at 75% accuracy for the season, 26.4 Margin MAE, and 19.6 Totals MAE, which remains very acceptable.

WAGERS

Only the Overs/Unders Fund recorded a profit this week after a disappointing set of Sunday results.

At weeks’ end, the Combined Portfolio is now down by 7c on a -14% ROI and a 0.5 turn.

TEAM DASHBOARD

The Team Dashboard metric rankings appear below and reveal that the metric rankings most associated with ladder position are:

  • WoS Win Production Function: +0.93

  • Points Conceded: +0.89

  • Q3 Performances: +0.86

  • Percentage of Quarters Won: +0.85

  • Goals Conceded: +0.84

  • Goals Scored: +0.77

  • Scoring Shots Conceded: +0.76

  • Points Scored: +0.75

  • Q2 Performances: +0.74

  • Q1 Performances: +0.7

The metric rankings least associated with ladder position are:

  • Q4 Performances: +0.47

The full Team Dashboard appears below, and reveals that, among other things:

  • Hawthorn are yet to lose a Q2, North Melbourne a Q2 or Q4, Melbourne a Q1 or Q3, and Sydney a Q2 or Q3.

  • Adelaide and Richmond are yet to win a Q2, Collingwood a Q1, or GWS a Q3.

  • North Melbourne have outscored their opponents by 4:1 or more in every quarter

  • They and Melbourne are the only teams to have outscored their opponents in every quarter

  • The only teams to have been outscored by their opponents in every quarter are Fremantle, Gold Coast, GWS, and Richmond.

  • North Melbourne and Sydney are the only teams to have generated more scoring than their opponents in each of the four quarters

  • Fremantle, GWS, Port Adelaide, and St Kilda are the only teams to have generated fewer scoring than their opponents in each of the four quarters