AFLW 2025 - Round 3

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Round 3 of the AFLW looks a lot less competitive than Round 2, with the early markets for three games suggesting that their final game margin will be under two goals, two more games expected to finish with a margin in the two to four goal range, and the remaining four games expected to finish with a margin of over four goals.

Below are WoSHBODS’ thoughts about the nine games of the round, which includes just a single underdog win (Sydney).

The TAB bookmaker’s average expected victory margin is 20.8 points, while WoSHBODS’ is 25.4 points per game.

Here’s some detail about WoSHBODS’ views:

WoSHBODS Wagering

My market entry timing was, if anything, worse this week than last, which led to extended shenanigans, The table at right summarises the wagers that I wanted when I first saw the markets, and the wagers that I secured as the attractive prices once again kept slipping away as I entered bets.

Head-to-head wagers were again generally less problematic, although West Coast rapidly slipped from the initial $3.10 on offer to $2.80 and below.

Line wagering was chaotic and included some outright bet refusals at sizes less than what you’d pay to fill your car with petrol.

When it was all done, WoSHBODS had head-to-head wagers in six games, in sizes ranging from 0.6% to 3.5% of the original Head-to-Head Fund and totalling 8.5% of that Fund.

It also had line wagers in eight games, in sizes ranging from 1% to 3% of the original Line Fund and totalling 12% of that Fund.

Aggregated, that means just under 10% of the entire Combined Portfolio is at risk this weekend.

We can see how that risk is spread across games and teams by referring to the Ready Reckoner below.

By far the most important result for Investors this week is that from the Brisbane v Carlton game where a Brisbane win of 28 points or more would add 1.8c to the price of the Combined Portfolio, and a Brisbane loss of any size would lop 2.8c off the price of the Combined Portfolio.

For the other games, the differences between best and worst outcomes are:

  • Sydney (v Geelong): Loss by 4 points or more results in a 1.6c drop and a win of any size results in a 1.5c gain [3.1c swing]

  • Western Bulldogs (v Hawthorn): Loss by 28 points or more results in a 0.9c drop and a win of any size results in a 1.7c gain. [2.6c swing]

  • Melbourne (v Collingwood): Win by less than 32 points, draw or loss results in a 1.2c drop and a win by 36 points or more results in a 1.1c gain. [2.3c swing]

  • Port Adelaide (v Gold Coast): Loss of any size results in a 1.2c drop and a win by 21 points or more results in a 0.8c gain. [2c swing]

  • West Coast (v St Kilda): Loss by 12 points or more results in a 0.9c drop and a win of any size results in a 1c gain. [1.9c swing]

  • North Melbourne (v Fremantle): Win by 28 points or less, draw or less results in a 0.7c drop and a win by 29 points or more results in a 0.6c gain. [1.3c swing]

  • Essendon (v Richmond): Loss of any size results in a 0.5c drop and a win by 8 points or more results in a 0.3c gain. [0.8c swing]

Altogther, just under 10% of the Combined Portfolio is at risk across all 14 wagers, and a best case set of results would see that risk rewarded by a lift in the Portfolio price of just under 9c.