AFLW 2025 - Round 4

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According to the bookmakers, Round 4 of the AFLW comprises:

  • Four games expected to be decided by less than a goal

  • Two games expected to be decided by between two and three goals

  • Two games expected to be decided by just over four goals

  • One game expected to be decided by just under eight goals

Below are WoSHBODS’ thoughts about the nine games of the round, which includes one underdog win (Brisbane) and one maybe underdog win depending on who you talk to (Port Adelaide).

The TAB bookmaker’s average expected victory margin is 16.3 points, while WoSHBODS’ is 19.3 points per game.

Here’s some detail about WoSHBODS’ views:

WoSHBODS Wagering

Despite entering the markets later, shenanigans were still evident, again especially (but not exclusively) in the Line markets.

The gap between desire and attainment was, however, generally far narrower this week.

When all was done, WoSHBODS had head-to-head wagers in eight games, in sizes ranging from 0.1% to 3% of the original Head-to-Head Fund and totalling just over 14% of that Fund.

It also had line wagers in six games, in sizes ranging from 1.9% to 3.8% of the original Line Fund and totalling 17% of that Fund.

Aggregated, that means just under 15% of the entire Combined Portfolio is at risk this weekend.

We can see how that risk is spread across games and teams by referring to the Ready Reckoner below.

By far the most important result for Investors this week is that from the Carlton v Western Bulldogs game where a Dogs win of any size would add 4.8c to the price of the Combined Portfolio, and a loss by 20 points or more would lop 3.2c off the price of the Combined Portfolio.

For the other games, the differences between best and worst outcomes are:

  • Brisbane (v Adelaide): 5c swing

  • Hawthorn (v St Kilda): 4.3c swing

  • North Melbourne (v Collingwood): 4.3c swing

  • Port Adelaide (v West Coast): 4c swing

  • GWS (v Gold Coast): 3.7c swing

  • Fremantle (v Sydney): 0.6c swing

  • Richmond (v Melbourne): 0.2c swing

Altogther, just under 15% of the Combined Portfolio is at risk across all 13 wagers, and a best case set of results would see that risk rewarded by a lift in the Portfolio price of just over 15c.