AFLW 2025 - Simulations After Round 3

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This year’s post Round 3 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal

Also, note that these are early-season estimates and are therefore likely to have large standard errors associated with them. I expect them to change significantly over the next few weeks.

  1. North Melbourne: virtually certain of being finalists; virtually certain of Top 4; roughly 90% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Melbourne: virtually certain of being finalists; around 80% chances of Top 4; roughly 5% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Hawthorn and Sydney: about 90-95% chance of being finalists; around 60% chances of Top 4; roughly 2-3% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Adelaide and Brisbane: about 80-85% chance of being finalists; around 30% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Carlton: about 70% chances of being finalists; around 15% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. Essendon, Western Bulldogs, and Geelong: around 40-45% chances of being finalists; around 5-10% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. Port Adelaide and West Coast: around 15-25% chances of being finalists; around 2-4% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  8. Fremantle, Collingwood, St Kilda, and Richmond: around 2-10% chance of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  9. GWS and Gold Coast: <1% chance of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

LADDER FINISHES

The home and away ladder and Finals projections appear below.

We have 11 teams with a 1-in-4 or better chance of finishing Top 8, and six with about or better than a 3-in-10 chance of finishing Top 4.

It still looks as though 6.5 to 7 wins will be what’s required by most teams to make the Final 8 although 7.5 wins would provide nearer certainty.

FORECASTS FOR THE FINALS

Looking next at Finals prospects, we have:

Flag favouritism is currently, in order (with fair prices shown in brackets):

  • North Melbourne (about $1.25)

  • Melbourne (about $16.70)

  • Sydney and Brisbane (about $20)

COMBINATIONS AND PERMUTATIONS IN TOP X TEAMS

In the latest 10,000 simulation replicates there were:

  • 10,000 different Top 18s

  • 8,965 different Top 8s (which contain 707 unique sets of 8 teams in some order of a maximum possible 43,758 or about 1.6%)

  • 869 different Top 4s (which contain 196 unique sets of 4 teams in some order of a maximum possible 3,060 or about 6.4%)

LIKELY IMPORTANCE OF PERCENTAGE

As the final table for this week, we’ll use the simulations to investigate the estimated likelihood that any given pair of ladder positions will be determined after Round 12 based on percentage.

So, our current estimates are:

  • There’s about an 8-in-17 chance that 8th will be decided on percentages (47% up from 45%)

  • There’s about a 3-in-7 chance that 4th will be decided on percentages (43% up from 41%)

  • There’s only about a 1-in-5 chance that 1st will be decided on percentages (21% down from 35%)