AFLW 2025 - Round 6

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According to the bookmakers, Round 6 of the AFLW comprises:

  • Two games expected to be decided by less than two goals

  • Three games expected to be decided by between two and three goals

  • Four games expected to be decided by between about four-and-a-half and just over six goals.

Below are WoSHBODS’ thoughts about the nine games of the round, which sees all nine favourites winning.

The TAB bookmaker’s average expected victory margin is about 22 points, while WoSHBODS’ is just under 25 points per game.

Here’s some detail about WoSHBODS’ views:

WoSHBODS Wagering

It was shenanigans aplenty again this week, and a misclick from me that saw us slightly overbet North Melbourne on the line.

As usual, the graphic on the right sets down what we wanted when we first spotted the markets, and what we eventually secured after nine rounds with the bookmakers.

When the bell rang to end the fight, WoSHBODS had head-to-head wagers in five games, in sizes ranging from 0.3% to 2.9% of the original Head-to-Head Fund and totalling just under 8% of that Fund.

It also had line wagers in seven games, in sizes ranging from 0.1% to 3.6% of the original Line Fund and totalling just under 14% of that Fund.

Aggregated, that means around 11% of the entire Combined Portfolio is at risk this weekend.

We can see how that risk is spread across games and teams by referring to the Ready Reckoner below.

The most important result for Investors this week is that of the St Kilda v Richmond game where a Tigers win of any size would add 3.3c to the price of the Combined Portfolio, and a loss by 15 points or more would lop 2.3c off the price of the Combined Portfolio.

For the other games, the differences between best and worst outcomes are:

  • Adelaide (v Gold Coast): 4.1c swing

  • Melbourne (v West Coast): 3.7c swing

  • North Melbourne (v Carlton): 3c swing

  • Geelong (v Port Adelaide): 2.5c swing

  • Collingwood (v Hawthorn): 2.2c swing

  • Western Bulldogs (v Brisbane): 0.8c swing

Altogther,about 11% of the Combined Portfolio is at risk across all 12 wagers, and a best case set of results would see that risk rewarded by a lift in the Portfolio price of just over 11c.