AFLW 2025 - Simulations After Round 5

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This year’s post Round 5 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal

  1. North Melbourne: virtually certain of being finalists; virtually certain of Top 4; virtually certain of being Minor Premier

  2. Melbourne: virtually certain of being finalists; around 80% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Hawthorn, Brisbane, and Adelaide: about 90-95% chance of being finalists; around 40-55% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Sydney, Carlton, and Geelong: about 75-85% chance of being finalists; around 20-30% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Collingwood and West Coast: around 15-25% chances of being finalists; around 1-2% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. Fremantle, St Kilda, Port Adelaide, and Western Bulldogs: around 5-15% chance of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. Essendon: around 2% chance of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  8. Richmond, GWS, and Gold Coast: <1% chance of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

LADDER FINISHES

The home and away ladder and Finals projections appear below.

We have eight teams with a 3-in-4 or better chance of finishing Top 8, and eight with about or better than a 1-in-5 chance of finishing Top 4.

It still looks as though 6.5 to 7 wins will be what’s required by most teams to make the Final 8 although 7.5 wins would provide nearer certainty.

FORECASTS FOR THE FINALS

Looking next at Finals prospects, we have:

Flag favouritism is currently, in order (with fair prices shown in brackets):

  • North Melbourne (about $1.30)

  • Brisbane (about $12.50)

  • Melbourne (about $20)

COMBINATIONS AND PERMUTATIONS IN TOP X TEAMS

In the latest 10,000 simulation replicates there were:

  • 9,999 different Top 18s

  • 7,580 different Top 8s (which contain 377 unique sets of 8 teams in some order)

  • 483 different Top 4s (which contain 128 unique sets of 4 teams in some order)

LIKELY IMPORTANCE OF PERCENTAGE

As the final table again for this week, we’ll use the simulations to investigate the estimated likelihood that any given pair of ladder positions will be determined after Round 12 based on percentage.

So, our current estimates are:

  • There’s almost a 1-in-2 chance that 8th will be decided on percentages (47% down from 48%)

  • There’s about a 5-in-9 chance that 4th will be decided on percentages (55% up from 45%)

  • There’s now only about a 1-in-20 chance that 1st will be decided on percentages (5% down from 21%)