WoSHBODS and the two bookmakers ended up with 6 from 9 correct tips this week, which took WoSHBODS’ season-long record to 45 from 63 (71%).

WoSHBODS also recorded a Margin MAE of 23.2 points per game (compared to 22.7 and 22.5 for the bookmakers) and a Totals MAE of 14.4 points per game (compared to around 15 for both bookmakers).

The LPS of +3.1 bits compares to +3.0 bits for the bookmakers.

All told then, another very acceptable round.

The cumulative season-long results appear below.

Overall, we’re now at 71% accuracy for the season, 24.7 Game Margin MAE, and 16.3 Totals MAE, and +9.7 LPS.

TEAM-BY-TEAM FORECASTING STATISTICS

Let’s look firstly at how forecastable teams have been in terms of their final margins.

In the table at right we have WoSHBODS’ MAE by team, which reveals that Richmond’s final margins have been easiest to predict, and Gold Coast’s most difficult.

For Richmond, WoSHBODS has, on average, been within about 2 goals of their final margin while for Gold Coast the error has been about five-and-a-half goals, on average.

Hawthorn, Geelong, and Carlton have also been relatively easy to predict, while Melbourne, Essendon, GWS, and St Kilda have proven to be more difficult.

Next let’s look at LPS by team, which essentially measures how predictable, in a probabilistic sense, each team’s win and loss record has been.

Here we find that the records of North Melbourne, Geelong, Western Bulldogs and Melbourne have been easiest to forecast, and those of Adelaide and St Kilda most difficult.

FORECAST ACCURACY BY FINAL MARGIN

WoSHBODS has done remarkably well this season in forecasting the winners of what turned out to be close games. For example, it’s 7 and 2 in games decided by less than a goal, and 9 and 6 in gams decided by between one and less than three goals.

It’s also recorded quite small MAEs for games decided by less than three goals and has really only suffered in the 14 blowout games decided by six goals or more and where its MAE is 47 points per game.

WAGERS

This week there were small profits for the Heasd-to-Head and Line Funds, and a small loss for the Overs/UInders Fund.

Altogether, that meant that the Combined Portfolio rose by 0.1c to finish down by 4.3c on a -5.5% ROI and a 0.77 turn.

TEAM DASHBOARD

The Team Dashboard metric rankings appear below and reveal that the metric rankings most associated with ladder position are:

WoS Win Production Function: +0.93
Points Conceded: +0.85
Percentage of Quarters Won: +0.85
Goals Conceded: +0.85
Q3 Performances: +0.82
Goals Scored: +0.74
Points Scored: +0.73
Scoring Shots Conceded: +0.72
Scoring Shots Generated: +0.71

The metrics least associated with ladder position are:

Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion: +0.25
Own Scoring Shot Conversion: +0.42
Q2 Performances: +0.49

Hawthorn’s statistics are particularly interesting and include a 17th on Own Scoring Shot Conversion, 14th on Own Goals and Points Scored, 14th on Q1 Performances, and 15th on Q4 Performances. A little odd for a team sitting 3rd on the ladder.

The full Team Dashboard appears below, and reveals that, among other things:

North Melbourne are yet to lose a Q2.
North Melbourne have outscored their opponents by roughly 2.3:1 or more in every quarter, and more than 6:1 in Q2s
They and Melbourne are the only teams to have outscored their opponents in every quarter
The only teams to have been outscored by their opponents in every quarter are Collingwood, Essendon, Gold Coast, GWS, and Richmond.
North Melbourne and Melbourne are the only teams to have generated more scoring than their opponents in each of the four quarters
Gold Coast, GWS, and Richmond are the only teams to have generated fewer scoring than their opponents in each of the four quarters