AFLW 2025 - Simulations After Round 7

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This year’s post Round 7 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal

  1. North Melbourne: virtually certain of being finalists; virtually certain of Top 4; virtually certain of being Minor Premier

  2. Melbourne: virtually certain of being finalists; around 90-95% chances of Top 4; 1% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Hawthorn and Brisbane: virtually certain of being finalists; around 60-70% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Adelaide and Carlton: about 90-95% chances of being finalists; around 30-40% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Geelong and Sydney: about 55-65% chance of being finalists; around 1-2% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. St Kilda, West Coast, Fremantle, and Collingwood: around 10-30% chances of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. Port Adelaide and Western Bulldogs: around 2-3% chance of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  8. Essendon, GWS, Richmond, and Gold Coast: <1% chance of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

LADDER FINISHES

The home and away ladder and Finals projections appear below.

We have 9 teams with a 1-in-5 or better chance of finishing Top 8, and six with about or better than a 3-in-10 chance of finishing Top 4.

It still looks as though 6.5 to 7 wins will be what’s required by most teams to make the Final 8 although 7.5 wins would provide near certainty for most.

TOP 2s and Top 4s

Across the 10,000 simulation replicates, only 12 different combinations of teams appeared as the Top 2 at the end of the home and away season and they are shown in the table at right.

Over 70% of those replicates had North Melbourne in 1st and Melbourne in 2nd, and over 98% of them had North Melbourne in 1st with some other team in 2nd.

In another just over 1% of replicates North Melbourne finish in 2nd place behind either Melbourne or Hawthorn.

Two pairings appeared only once in the 10,000 replicates: North Melbourne and Sydney, and North Melbourne and West Coast.



The simulations offered a lot more variety in terms of final Top 4s. Overall, there were 180 of them, the top 10 of which are shown in the table at left.

North Melbourne again dominates and appears in 1st place in all of the quartets, with Melbourne filling 2nd place in all but one where Hawthorn takes their place.

Together, these 10 combinations represent just under one-third of all replicates.

LIKELY IMPORTANCE OF PERCENTAGE

Next we’ll use the simulations to investigate the estimated likelihood that any given pair of ladder positions will be determined after Round 12 based on percentage.

So, our current estimates are:

  • There’s now a better than 1-in-2 chance that 8th will be decided on percentages (53% up from 50%)

  • There’s just over a 1-in-2 chance that 4th will be decided on percentages (51% down from 55%)

  • There’s now only about a 1-in-16 chance that 1st will be decided on percentages (6% up from 3%)

FORECASTS FOR THE FINALS

Looking next at Finals prospects, we have:

Flag favouritism is currently, in order (with fair prices shown in brackets):

  • North Melbourne (about $1.50)

  • Melbourne (about $6.70)

  • Brisbane (about $7.70)

We can also look at the week in which teams will bow out of the Finals. and the teams they’ll bow out to

Note that the bottom half of the graphic is a replica of the top half but with varying y-axes for each team to better facilitate and understanding of the actual percentages.

Finally, we’ll take a look at possible Grand Final pairings

Note that 0s denote those pairings where the result occurred in less than 0.5% of replicates.

Very clearly, the most likely Grand Final involves North Melbourne defeating Melbourne. That occurs in 30% of all replicates. The next most likely involves North Melbourne defeating Brisbane. That occurs in 20% of all replicates.

Another 11% are accounted for by Melbourne defeating North Melbourne, and another 8% by Brisbane defeating North Melbourne.