AFLW 2025 - Round 8

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According to the bookmakers, Round 8 of the AFLW comprises:

  • Four games expected to be decided by less than two goals

  • One game expected to be decided by about two-and-a-half goals

  • Four games expected to be decided by about four-and-a-half to five goals.

Below are WoSHBODS’ thoughts about the nine games of the round, which sees just one underdog (Western Bulldogs) winning.

The TAB bookmaker’s average expected victory margin is about 18.5 points per game, while WoSHBODS’ is about 23.4 points per game.

Here’s some detail about WoSHBODS’ views:

WoSHBODS Wagering

There were shenanigans aplenty this week, as evidenced by the number of wagers in the line markets split across the TAB and Sportsbet, or secured at different lines or prices.

In aggregate, WoSHBODS has eight head-to-head wagers this week, in sizes ranging from 0.6% to 3.4% of the original Head-to-Head Fund and totalling only just over 13% of that Fund.

It also has line wagers in all nine games, in sizes ranging from 0.4% to 8.2% of the original Line Fund and totalling a frightening 21.5% of that Fund.

Aggregated, that means around 17% of the entire Combined Portfolio is at risk this weekend.

We can see how that risk is spread across games and teams by referring to the Ready Reckoner below.

By far the most important result for Investors this weekend will be that for the Brisbane v Gold Coast game. A Lions win by 33 points or more will add 4.7c to the price of the Combined Portfolio, while a loss will lop 6.2c off the price of the Combined Portfolio.

That’s almost an 11c swing. The swing for that, and for the other games, are as follows:

  • Brisbane (v Gold Coast): 10.8c swing

  • Western Bulldogs (v Port Adelaide): 4.6c swing

  • North Melbourne (v Sydney): 4.2c swing

  • Melbourne (v Essendon): 3.5c swing

  • Fremantle (v Hawthorn): 2.9c swing

  • Richmond (v Adelaide): 2.5c swing

  • Greater Western Sydney (v St Kilda): 2.1c swing

  • Geelong (v Carlton): 1.5c swing

  • Collingwood (v West Coast): 0.9c swing

Altogther, as noted, almost 17% of the Combined Portfolio is at risk across all 17 wagers, and a best case set of results would see that risk rewarded by a lift in the Portfolio price of just over 16c.