MoSHBODS changed the ranking of just six teams this week, all of them in the top half, which left it with a Top 3 of Hawthorn, Sydney, and Geelong. Geelong, who rose two places, were the only team to move by more than a single spot.
MARS moved 10 teams, including four by two spots, and finished with a Top 3 of Sydney, Geelong, and Hawthorn.
Read MoreAlthough, by definition, it is always the most likely single outcome, it is nevertheless very unlikely that all nine early-week pre-game favourites are successful, but that is what we saw this week. Roughly, based on the TAB bookmaker’s own estimates, the pre-round probability of this was about 4.4% or 1 in 23.
That result was, of course, good for Bookie Knows Best, which remains co-leader of the Head-to-Head Tipsters with ENS_Linear and now on 66 from 81 (81%). They are one tip ahead of MARS_Marg, and a further tip ahead of the RSMP twins.
The all-Tipster average score came in at 7.9 from 9, taking the season-long figure to 61.4 from 81 (76%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay finishes at Dees by 41 points.
MoSHPlay finishes at Suns by 11 and Cats by 7 points.
MoSHPlay has some updated preliminary views on the Sunday games.
MoSHPlay has finished with the Hawks by a semi-behind, and now has preliminary views on all other games in the round.
MoSHPlay currently has the Thursday night game as the Hawks by a semi-behind.
The rate at which MoSHBODS changes its base team scoring assumption over time has been optimised using roughly the last decade of scoring data. That methodology has seen MoSHBODS increase its base assumption by about 0.5 point per team or 1 point a game across the course of 2026. That rate of adjustment is feeling a little pedestrian at the moment.
Possible evidence for this is that, this week, MoSHBODS is, on average 8-points per game lower in its average totals forecast compared to the bookmakers, and that MoSHBODS’ forecasts are below those of the bookmakers in all nine games considered individually.
Read MoreThis week’s nine games includes four that are expected to be decided by about two goals or less, one that’s expected to be decided by about four goals, and four more that are expected to be decided by between about five-and-a-half and seven-and-a-half goals. Combined, the average expected margin per game is 23.6 points per game.
There are only three away favourites with an average expected victory margin of 20.2 points per game, and six home team favourites with an average expected victory margin of 25.3 points per game.
Read MoreMoSHBODS changed the ranking of just seven teams this week, none of them by more than a single spot, which left it with a Top 3 still of Sydney, Hawthorn, and Brisbane Lions.
MARS moved only six teams, none by more than a single spot, but finished with a Top 3 of Sydney, Brisbane Lions, and Hawthorn.
Read MoreAnother good week for favourites and anti-contrarian Head-to-Head Tipsters, which saw all but three Tipsters register eight from nine, the exceptions being MARS_Marg’s seven, Consult The Ladder’s six, and Home Sweet Home’s five.
That allowed Bookie Knows Best and ENS_Linear to draw level with MARS_Marg at the top of the Leaderboard, all now on 57 from 72 (74%) and one tip clear of MoSHPlay_Marg and the RSMP twins.
The all-Tipster average score came in at 6.8 from 9, taking the season-long figure to 53.5 from 72 (74%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay finishes at Cats by 20 points.
MoSHPlay has no changes for tonight’s games and some new preliminary views on the Sunday games.
MoSHPlay’s has finished at Hawks by 10 points, and now has preliminary views about the remainder of the round.
MoSHPlay’s current view of the Thursday night game is Hawks by 10 points.
This week, MoSHBODS is a little closer to the bookmakers’ views in a few games - and even expects a higher score than them in one game - but still has an all-game expected Total that is about a goal less than both the TAB and Sportsbet.
Read MoreYet another feast of nine more games this week, six of which are expected to be decided by less than 20 points, two more by between 26 and 31 points, and the last one of which is expected to be decided by just over 7 goals. Combined, the average expected margin per game is 21.2 points per game.
There are five home favourites with an average expected victory margin of 20.3 points per game, and four away team favourites with an average expected victory margin of 22.3 points per game.
Here’s hoping we have a far more competitive round than last week.
Read MoreMoSHBODS changed the ranking of 11 teams this week, with some big changes towards the top of the ordering, which saw Sydney rise to 1st, Hawthorn slip to 2nd, and Brisbane Lions rise to 3rd. In other big moves, Geelong now sits in 5th (down 3), and Collingwood in 6th (up 3).
MARS moved 14 teams, but only four by more than a single spot, which left it with an identical Top 3 to MoSHBODS.
Read MoreIt was a good week for favourites and, by extension, a good week for contrarian-avoiding Head-to-Head Tipsters, which saw all but two Tipsters register eight from nine, the exceptions being MARS_Marg’s seven, and Home Sweet Home’s five.
That left MARS_Marg still in 1st place and now on 49 from 53 (79%) but only one tip clear of Bookie Knows Best and ENS_Linear, with MoSHPlay_Marg remaining one further back with the RSMP twins on 47 from 63 (76%).
The all-Tipster average score came in at 7.6 from 9, taking the season-long figure to 45.8 from 63 (74%).
It’s been a fairly easy year to tip winners.
Read MoreMoSHPlay finishes at Melbourne by 37 points and has fresh but still preliminary views about the Sunday games.
MoSHPlay finishes at the Swans by 7 points and has preliminary views on the remaining games in the round.
MoSHPlay currently has tomorrow night’s game as the Swans by 7 points
A routine check of the MoSHBODS spreadsheets detected that they have been, since Round 5, not considering the ninth game of the round for wagers.
That meant that - fortuitously as it happens - Investors missed wagers on Port Adelaide both head-to-head and line in Round 5, but also that they’ve missed head-to-head and line wagers on GWS in the current round.
I’ve just remedied that so we now have:
2.8% @ $1.42 GWS H2H
2.2% @ $1.90 GWS -16.5
MoSHBODS - as stubborn as always - again feels that the bookmakers have gone too high with their Totals this week (in all but one game), and has an all-game expected Total of 176 points per game compared to TAB’s and Sportbet’s 184 and 183.
(Some time soon it’ll be worth investigating the speed at which MoSHBODS is adjusting its scoring expectations to reflect recent games. The average score per game so far this season is 179.4 points per game, so it’s not a slam dunk that MoSHBODS is being way too slow to adapt.
Of interest is that the bookmakers have seven teams breaking 100 points this weekend, while MoSHBODS has five.)
Read MoreAnother nine more games this week, four of which are expected to be decided by less than 20 points, two more by between 23 and 27 points, and the last three of which are expected to be decided by between 33 and 39 points. Combined, the average expected margin per game is 24.5 points per game.
There are five home favourites with an average expected victory margin of 23.9 points per game, and four away team favourites with an average expected victory margin of 25.3 points per game.
Read MoreMoSHBODS changed the ranking of only five teams this week, and only two by more than a single spot: Geelong up 2 spots into 2nd, and Western Bulldogs down 4 spots into 6th.
MARS moved 10 teams, including five by more than a single spot: Sydney up 2 into 1st, Geelong up 4 into 2nd, Hawthorn down 2 into 3rd, Western Bulldogs down 3 into 5th, and North Melbourne up 2 into 13th.
At the end of it all, MoSHBODS’ Top 3 is Swans, Cats, and Hawks, and MARS’ is Hawks, Cats, and Swans.
Read MoreWhilst 6,7 might be a dying meme, it was all 7,8 for the Head-to-Head Tipsters this week, which left MARS_Marg still in 1st place and now on 43 from 54 (80%) and still two tips clear of Bookie Knows Best and ENS_Linear, with MoSHPlay_Marg falling one further back to join the RSMP twins on 40 from 54 (74%).
The all-Tipster average score came in at 7.6 from 9, taking the season-long figure to a lofty 39.1 from 54 (72%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay finishes at Brisbane Lions by 14 points (and currently has Fremantle by 42 points)
MoSHPlay, with the late change, moves to Swans by 22 points, It also has new, but still preliminary views on the Sunday games.
MoSHPlay ends at Pies by 10 points and has preliminary views about the remaining games in the round.
MoSHPlay currently has tomorrow night’s game as the Pies by 11 points
MoSHBODS again feels that the bookmakers have gone too high with their Totals in every game this week, and has an all-game expected Total of 175 points per game compared to TAB’s and Sportbet’s 182.
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