2026 - Round 9 : Overs/Unders

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The rate at which MoSHBODS changes its base team scoring assumption over time has been optimised using roughly the last decade of scoring data. That methodology has seen MoSHBODS increase its base assumption by about 0.5 point per team or 1 point a game across the course of 2026. That rate of adjustment is feeling a little pedestrian at the moment.

Possible evidence for this is that, this week, MoSHBODS is, on average 8-points per game lower in its average totals forecast compared to the bookmakers, and that MoSHBODS’ forecasts are below those of the bookmakers in all nine games considered individually.

There’s complete agreement this week only about the likely highest scoring game:

Highest Scoring Game

  • All: Melbourne v West Coast

Lowest Scoring Game

  • MoSHBODS: Richmond v Adelaide

  • Bookmakers: Geelong v Collingwood

Highest Scoring Team

  • MoSHBODS: Melbourne

  • Bookmakers: GWS (TAB also Melbourne)

Lowest Scoring Team

  • All: Richmond

  • Bookmakers: Carlton

WAGERS

MoSHBODS would have liked to place a wager on seven games this week, but all were ruled out by the TGTBT rule.

The estimated overlays in the nine games range from the too low 0.5 to 1.5 points to the too high 5.4 to 13.7 points.

The table at right shows what the Overs/Unders Fund would currently be worth had we enforced only some or all of the veto rules. For the third time last week, the TGTBT rule saved Investors a good deal of money. Without them, right now the Overs/Unders Fund would have a price just over 48c.

PREVIOUS WEEK

Last week saw the TAB take mean absolute error (MAE) honours for Away Team Scores and Game Totals, and MoSHBODS take them for Home Team Scores and Game Margins. That allowed the TAB to retain season-long leadership on Game Margins, snatch outright leadership on Away Team Scores, and forge joint leadership with Sportsbet on Home Team Scores. Sportsbet retains outright leadership on Game Totals.

The leads in each race are now as follows:

  • Game Margins: TAB 7 points ahead of Sportsbet and 24 points ahead of MoSHBODS

  • Home Team Scores: Sportsbet level with the TAB and 33 points ahead of MoSHBODS

  • Away Team Scores: TAB 1 point ahead of Sportsbet, and 57 points ahead of MoSHBODS

  • Game Totals: Sportsbet 4 points ahead of the TAB, and 147 points ahead of MoSHBODS

Wagering and Game-by-Game Performance

There were three bets last weekend, one successful overs with the TAB and a pair of unders with the TAB, only one of which was successful. That left MoSHBODS at 7 and 7 against the TAB and at 0 and 1 against Sportsbet.

Overall, MoSHBODS was on the right side of the TAB and Sportsbet in only 4 of the 9 games last week. It is now 35 from 72 (49%) against the TAB, and 33 from 72 (46%) against Sportsbet.

The round-by-round performance is shown in the following table.