2026 - Round 9 : Dogs are Dogs (according to MoSHBODS)

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This week’s nine games includes four that are expected to be decided by about two goals or less, one that’s expected to be decided by about four goals, and four more that are expected to be decided by between about five-and-a-half and seven-and-a-half goals. Combined, the average expected margin per game is 23.6 points per game.

There are only three away favourites with an average expected victory margin of 20.2 points per game, and six home team favourites with an average expected victory margin of 25.3 points per game.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

Altogether there are just eight contrarian tips this week, three of them from Home Sweet Home, two from MoSHBODS_Marg, one from MARS_Marg, and one each from the RSMP twins.

The Hawks and Port Adelaide are the underdogs enjoying the highest levels of support.

Amongst the Margin Predictors there are double-digit forecast ranges in five games this week, most notably 22 points in the Giants v Dons clash, and 17 points in the Roos v Swans and the Tigers v Crows games.

MoSHBODS_Marg is Extreme Predictor in four games and Bookie_3 and Bookie_9 in three games each.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, only two of the nine games have a double-digit percentage point forecast range: Gianys v Dons (12%) and Tigers v Crows (11%).

MoSHBODS_Prob is the Extreme Predictor in six games this week, and MARS_Prob in five.

WAGERS

Minimum expected return constraints have only prevented MoSHBODS from wagering on the Pies and Crows away this week. They’ve had no such effect on five other line bets or four head-to-head wagers.

Those five line bets range in size from 0.5% to 2.8% of the original Line Fund, and total just under 9% of that Fund, while the four head-to-head wagers span a narrower 0.4% to 1.4% of the Head-to-Head Fund, and total just under 3.5% of that Fund.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

Below is a Ready Reckoner that shows the returns that will accrue to different possible outcomes in each game.

That’s a busy week with multiple eggs in various baskets.

To finish, here are MoSHBODS’ and MARS’ opinions about likely team scoring, margins and probabilities.

Commentary about the MoSHBODS’ Totals forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.