2025 - Round 28 : 2nd v 3rd

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There have been four Grand Finals since 2000 where 2nd on the ladder faced 3rd, and the teams from 3rd have won three of those contests but not the most recent, which occurred in 2018 and saw West Coast defeat Collingwood.

More generally, teams from 2nd on the ladder have seen themselves playing in the Grand Final in 13 of the 25 previous seasons, winning 7 and losing 6, with five of those seven victories coming in games against the minor premier.

Teams from 3rd have participated 12 times, winning seven and losing five with four of them to minor premiers.

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2025 - Team Ratings After Round 27 (Week 3 of the Finals)

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MoSSBODS moved the two winning Preliminary Finalists up a spot each - Geelong into 1st at the expense of Western Bulldogs, and Brisbane Lions into 3rd at the expense of Collingwood - while MoSHBODS just moved Brisbane Lions into 3rd ahead of Hawthorn.

That left both Systems with matching Top 3s of Geelong, Western Bulldogs, and Brisbane Lions.

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2025 - Round 27 : 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 8th

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Historically since 2000, Week 3 2nd v 8th clashes have gone 1-0 in favour of the team from 2nd, and the more common 3rd v 4th clashes have gone 8-2 in favour of the team from 3rd.

More generally, teams from 2nd on the ladder have seen themselves playing in Week 3 in 23 of the 25 previous seasons, winning 13 and losing 10, with eight of those 10 losses coming in games against the minor premier.

Teams from 3rd have participated 20 times, winning 12 and losing eight (five of them to minor premiers), while teams from 4th have been there 19 times for just three wins, and teams from 8th have been there only once previously for a loss.

The dire record of teams finishing 4th on the ladder is perplexing - they even have losing (if short) records against teams from 6th and 7th on the ladder.

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2025 - Round 26 Results (Finals Week 2) - One of Each

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Whilst 8th on the ladder defeating 1st might’ve been a huge surprise in previous seasons, it was perhaps less so this season as the two teams entered their semi-final with Hawthorn ranked 3rd by MoSHBODS and Adelaide 7th and with the Crows’ favouritism coming solely from the putative advantage that the game’s venue was meant to confer.

In the other game, the Lions and Suns entered their match ranked 5th (Brisbane Lions) and 6th (Gold Coast) with essentially equal MoSHBODS Ratings, but with the Lions enjoying the venue performance advantage. Their victory was therefore much less of a surprise, although the margin larger than expected.

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2025 - Team Ratings After Round 25 (Week 1 of the Finals)

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MoSSBODS swapped Collingwood into 3rd ahead of Brisbane Lions, and Sydney into 10th ahead of GWS, while MoSHBODS swapped Geelong into 1st ahead of Western Bulldogs, and moved Collingwood into 4th, Gold Coast into 6th, Adelaide into 7th, Fremantle into 8th, and GWS into 9th.

All of which left MoSSBODS with a Top 3 of Dogs, Cats, and Pies, and MoSHBODS with a Top 3 of Cats, Dogs, and Hawks.

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