2025 - Round 25 : Clutch

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If the bookmakers are right, all four of the weekend Finals should be close, albeit that the home teams should win all four.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

Wall-to-wall home team favourites rule out any Home Sweet Home contrarianism this week, and no other tipster felt obliged to fill the void. So, no changes to the Leaderboard this week unless MoSHPlay disagrees with MoSHBODS’ choice of winners.

Amongst the Margin Predictors there is a double-digit forecast range only in the Cats v Lions game where the range is about 17 points,

MoSSBODS_Marg is the extreme Predictor in all four games this week, and Bookie_Hcap in two.

MoSHPlay_Marg trails ENS_Linear by about 75 points going into the Finals. If its margin forecasts are similar to MoSHBODS_Marg then, at best, it can reduce that gap by about one-third.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors there are two games with a double-digit percentage point forecast range: 16% points in the Cats v Lions game, and 10% points in the Crows v Pies game.

MoSHBODS_Prob is the extreme Predictor in all four games, and MoSSBODS_Prob in two games.

WAGERS

Traditionally, Finals have been relatively quiet times for the MoS Funds, but this year is clearly going to be an exception.

What was also unusual was that there was nary a hint of shenanigans this week, with the TAB happy to accommodate even a 6.1% head-to-head wager and a 6.7% line wager on the Cats.

In total, Investors have wagers in all four line markets totalling just over 12% of the original Line Fund in sizes ranging from 0.6% on GWS to that 6.7% on Geelong.

Those line bets are joined by three head-to-head wagers totalling just under 10% of the original Head-to-Head Fund in sizes ranging from 0.6% on GWS to 6.1% on Western Bulldogs.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

The week’s Ready Reckoner reveals that Geelong carry the most risk in the sense that the difference between a 7-point win and a loss represents 10.8% of the original Combined Portfolio. On the same metric Adelaide carry 5.4% risk, Gold Coast 1.9%, and GWS 1%.

A best case set of results would boost the Combined Portfolio by just under 9c, while a worst case set would snip just over 10c off the price.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.