2025 - Round 27 : 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 8th

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The bookmakers again have both of this weeks’ games as close-run things, but also have both home teams as favourites.

Historically since 2000, Week 3 2nd v 8th clashes have gone 1-0 in favour of the team from 2nd, and the more common 3rd v 4th clashes have gone 8-2 in favour of the team from 3rd.

More generally, teams from 2nd on the ladder have seen themselves playing in Week 3 in 23 of the 25 previous seasons, winning 13 and losing 10, with eight of those 10 losses coming in games against the minor premier.

Teams from 3rd have participated 20 times, winning 12 and losing eight (five of them to minor premiers), while teams from 4th have been there 19 times for just three wins, and teams from 8th have been there only once previously for a loss.

The dire record of teams finishing 4th on the ladder is perplexing - they even have losing (if short) records against teams from 6th and 7th on the ladder.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

Consult the Ladder has the round’s only contrarian tip amongst the Head-to-Head Tipsters, as the third-finishing Brisbane Lions are currently underdogs playing the fourth-finishing Collingwood.

There’s again not a lot of variability amongst the Margin Predictors, with the forecasts spanning ranges of under two goals for both teams.

MoSHBODS_Marg is the extreme Predictor in both games this week.

Amongst the Margin Predictors, MoSHPlay_Marg now trails ENS_Linear by about 80 points, which is surely insurmountable with a maximum reduction this week of maybe 6 to 10 points and only one game to play after that.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors the probability forecasts span only 10% points and 7% points with MoSHBODS_Prob the extreme Predictor in both games.

Here too then, the differences are so small that the results are unlikely to much alter the current Leaderboard.





WAGERS

Investors have just a head-to-head and two line wagers this week.

(Please click on the image at right to access a larger version.)

The possible outcomes are:

GEELONG v HAWTHORN

  • Hawthorn wins: 1.8% x 1.45 x 25% = +0.7%

  • Hawthorn loses: -1.8% x 25% = -0.5%

COLLINGWOOD v BRISBANE LIONS

  • Collingwood wins by 7 points or more: 2.2% x 0.67 x 25% + 2.2% x 0.91 x 65% = +1.7%

  • Collingwood wins by 1 to 6 points: 2.2% x 0.67 x 25% - 2.2% x 65% = -1.1%

  • Collingwood loses: -2% x 25% - 1.8% x 65% = -2.0%

To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.