Two games again this week, and some non-trivial differences of opinion about likely Totals, including a five-point difference between the MoS twins for the Pies v Lions game and 7.5- to 12.5-point differences between the MoS twins and the bookmakers for the Cats v Hawks.

WAGERS

The large difference in the Cats v Hawks Totals forecasts fuelled the lone MoSSBODS Totals bet for the week.

(There is a forecast for rain on Friday, which is possibly why the difference of opinion is so large, but I’m sceptical about forecasts for more than 3 days ahead. Still, I probably should’ve waited until tomorrow before deciding whether or not to bet …)

The estimated overlay on the Cats game is about 10 points. Let’s blow those rainclouds away.

PREVIOUS WEEK

Last week saw MoSSBODS take mean absolute error (MAE) honours for Home Team Scores, and Sportsbet do the same for Game Margins, Away Team Scores, and Game Totals, the latter shared with the TAB.

The TAB nonetheless retains the season-long lead for all four metrics.

Those leads are now as follows:

Game Margins: the TAB 9 points ahead of Sportsbet, 152 points ahead of MoSHBODS, and 287 points ahead of MoSSBODS
Home Team Scores: TAB 21 points ahead of MoSHBODS, 25 points ahead of Sportsbet, and 128 points ahead of MoSSBODS
Away Team Scores: the TAB 40 points ahead of Sportsbet, 101 points ahead of MoSHBODS, and 108 points ahead of MoSSBODS
Game Totals: 18 points ahead of MoSHBODS, TAB 24 points ahead of Sportsbet, and 79 points ahead of MoSSBODS

Wagering and Game-by-Game Performance

There were no bets last weekend, which left MoSSBODS with a 19 and 19 season-long record against the TAB, and a 7 and 6 season-long record against Sportsbet.

Overall, MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS were on the wrong side of the TAB and Sportsbet on both games.

That took MoSSBODS to 107 from 213 (50%) against the TAB and Sportsbet, and MoSHBODS to 120 from 213 (56%) against the TAB and 119 from 213 (56%) against Sportsbet.

The round-by-round performance is shown in the following table.