2025 - Team Ratings After Round 25 (Week 1 of the Finals)

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MoSSBODS swapped Collingwood into 3rd ahead of Brisbane Lions, and Sydney into 10th ahead of GWS, while MoSHBODS swapped Geelong into 1st ahead of Western Bulldogs, and moved Collingwood into 4th, Gold Coast into 6th, Adelaide into 7th, Fremantle into 8th, and GWS into 9th.

All of which left MoSSBODS with a Top 3 of Dogs, Cats, and Pies, and MoSHBODS with a Top 3 of Cats, Dogs, and Hawks.

Overall, MoSSBODS now has 12 teams rated as above average and MoSHBODS has 10, with MoSHBODS excluding Sydney and Carlton relative to MoSSBODS.

The correlation between MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS Combined Ratings now stands at +0.99 and, roughly speaking, each team’s Combined MoSHBODS Rating is about 0.97 times its Combined MoSSBODS Rating.

On the Component Ratings, on offence we find MoSSBODS still with a Top 3 of Dogs, Cats, and Lions, and MoSHBODS still agreeing, while on defence MoSSBODS still has a Top 3 of Pies, Hawks, and Crows, and MoSHBODS still agrees.

MoSSBODS has 11 teams rated as above average on offence, while MoSHBODS has 10, with the latter dropping Sydney. On defence, MoSSBODS has 10 teams rated as above average on defence, as does MoSHBODS.

Offensive ratings on MoSSBODS currently span a range of 1.69 standard deviations and defensive ratings a range of 1.41 standard deviations. Offensive ratings on MoSHBODS span a range of 1.7 standard deviations and defensive ratings a range of about 1.42 standard deviations.

Standard deviations of offensive ratings across all teams are 0.47 for MoSSBODS and 0.48 for MoSHBODS, and those for defensive ratings 0.42 for MoSSBODS and 0.41 for MoSHBODS

Teams therefore remain more differentiated by their offensive abilities than their defensive abilities,

We can also review the trajectory that each team has followed to arrive at its current MoSHBODS Rating (with thanks to www.footyjumpers.com for the use of their exquisite team guernseys)

On MoSHBODS, 8 teams are rated positively on offence and defence, 6 are rated negatively on both, two are rated positively on offence but negatively on defence, and two more are rated negatively on offence but positively on defence.

The correlation between the teams’ MoSHBODS offensive and defensive Ratings now stands at +0.75.

COMPARATIVE RATINGS OF THE FINALISTS AFTER WEEK 1 OF THE FINALS

This week we look at the ratings of all Finalists from 2000 onwards as at the end of Week 1 of the Finals.

We can see that Geelong is in the Top 5 teams offensively in that period, but relatively lowly ranked on defence. Conversely, Collingwood is in the top half of teams defensively, but relatively week offensively. Fremantle and GWS went out with pretty much the Rating you’d expect for losing Elimination Finalists.

Finally, it’s time to take a look at MARS, which swapped Hawthorn into 3rd ahead of Adelaide this week, and dropped GWS two spots into 8th, allowing Collingwood to take 6th, and Gold Coast to take 7th.

There remain 10 teams rated better-than-average by MARS, after which there is a large gap to Carlton’s 994.8.

The Ratings provide something of a natural grouping of the teams:

  • About 30 to 35 points better than an average team: Geelong and Western Bulldogs

  • About 19 to 24 points better than an average team: Hawthorn, Adelaide, Brisbane Lions, and Collingwood

  • About 10 to 15 points better than an average team: Gold Coast, GWS, and Fremantle

  • About an average team: Sydney

  • About 4 to 5 points worse than an average team: Carlton and Melbourne

  • About 12 to 15 points worse than an average team: St Kilda and Port Adelaide

  • About 32 points worse than an average team: North Melbourne and Essendon

  • About 42 points worse than an average team: Richmond

  • About 52 points worse than an average team: West Coast

MoSSBODS this week provides the most outlying rankings at 9, with MARS at 6, and MoSHBODS at just 3.

MoSHBODS and MARS agree about the ranking of 10 teams now, MoSSBODS and MARS about 6, and MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS also about 6.

Looking finally at the range of rankings that the three Systems have attached to each team we find that Adelaide, Collingwood, GWS, and Melbourne have the widest range of rankings at just three spots, and that there are no other teams whose rankings span more than two spots.

There are also four teams that the Systems unanimously rank: Port Adelaide, Richmond, St Kilda, and West Coast.

Broadly speaking, with no difference in ranking larger than three spots, the three Systems have quite similar views about the relatively strengths of the 18 teams, as shown by the rank correlations below:

  • MARS with MoSSBODS: +0.957

  • MARS with MoSHBODS: +0.977

  • MoSSBODS with MoSHBODS: +0.981