2025 - Round 26 : 1st, 3rd, 7th, and 8th

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The bookmakers have both of this weeks’ games as close-run things, though still have both home teams as favourites.

Historically, Week 2 1st v 8th clashes have gone 3-0 in favour of the minor premiers, and 3rd v 7th clashes have gone 5-2 in favour of the home teams.

More generally, minor premiers have seen themselves playing in Week 2 in six of the 25 previous seasons, winning on every occasion.

Teams from 2nd have participated only eight times, winning six, while teams from 3rd have been there 17 times for 12 wins, and teams from 4th 19 times for 13 wins.

So, the prevalence of going out in straight sets is inversely proportional to ladder finish, as you might suspect.

What’s interesting about this year’s 8th-placed Hawthorn is that it was the 2nd-highest MoSHBODS-rated team at the end of the home and away season, amongst the Finalists. That’s the highest ranked the team finishing 8th on the ladder has been since (at least) 1999.

However, only one team ranked 1st or 2nd on Ratings that finished outside the Top 4 on the ladder has made it into a Preliminary Final: Melbourne in 2018.

In passing I’ll just note one interesting feature of the Finalists as a whole in 2025 and that is that they are, on average, stronger offensively than defensively. This is the fourth straight year that this has been true after the opposite being the case for every season back to 2000 excepting 2002 and 2012.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

We are, again, bereft of contrarian tips amongst the Head-to-Head Tipsters, and there’s also not a lot of variability amongst the Margin Predictors either, with the forecasts spanning ranges of only just over 8 points.

MoSSBODS_Marg is the extreme Predictor in both games this week.

MoSHPlay_Marg now trails ENS_Linear by about 72 points, which is beginning to look like an insurmountable lead with only five games to play and MoSHBODS_Marg - MoSHPlay_Marg’s muse - only 11 points different from ENS_Linear across this week’s forecasts.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors the probability forecasts span only 7% points and 9% points with MoSSBODS_Prob the extreme Predictor in both games.

Here to the differences are so small that the results are unlikely to much alter the current Leaderboard.





WAGERS

Investors have just a head-to-head and a line wager on Adelaide this week.

(Please click on the image at right to access a larger version.)

The possible outcomes are:

  • Adelaide wins by 4 points or more: 2% x 0.77 x 25% + 1.8% x 0.9 x 65% = +1.4%

  • Adelaide wins by 1 to 3 points: 2% x 0.77 x 25% - 1.8% x 65% = -0.8%

  • Adelaide loses: -2% x 25% - 1.8% x 65% = -1.7%

To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.