2025 - Round 26 Results (Finals Week 2) - One of Each
/Whilst 8th on the ladder defeating 1st might’ve been a huge surprise in previous seasons, it was perhaps less so this season as the two teams entered their semi-final with Hawthorn ranked 3rd by MoSHBODS and Adelaide 7th and with the Crows’ favouritism coming solely from the putative advantage that the game’s venue was meant to confer.
In the other game, the Lions and Suns entered their match ranked 5th (Brisbane Lions) and 6th (Gold Coast) with essentially equal MoSHBODS Ratings, but with the Lions enjoying the venue performance advantage. Their victory was therefore much less of a surprise, although the margin larger than expected.
Those wins have moved teams from 7th and 8th to matching 22% records in Week 2, teams from 3rd to a 72% record, and teams from 1st to an 86% record after a first-ever semi-final loss.
They also meant that the Head-to-Head Tipsters all scored only 1 from 2, which took their season-long collective collective average record to 148.1 from 213 (70%).
RSMP_Weighted produced the round’s best MAE of 40 points per game, which was only a fraction better than the next-best in Bookie_3.
The all-Predictor average was 41.1 points per game, which took the season-long average to 26.4 points per game.
The round-by-round history of Margin Predictor rankings appears below, and shows the only change as Bookie_3 moving ahead of Bookie_9.
Log probability scores were all positive this week for the bookie-based forecasters and for MoSSBODS_Prob, but negative for the two other MoS forecasters.
The Leaderboard ordering remained unchanged, however, with Bookie_LPSO in 1st, Bookie_RE in 2nd, and MoSHPlay_Prob in 3rd.
WAGERING
The Crows’ represented the week’s only bets, so their loss was also a loss for Investors - this week of 1.7c.
Overall, the Combined Portfolio is up by just under 9c on the season, that from a +4% ROI on a 2.4 turn.
