2025 - Round 27 Results (Finals Week 3) - One of Each Again

MoSHBODS thought there’d be one win by a favourite and one by an underdog, which was correct, but MoSHBODS got the order wrong. We had 2nd defeating 8th, and 3rd defeating 4th.

Those wins have moved teams from 2nd to a 14 and 10 record (58%) in Preliminary Finals, and teams from 3rd to a 13 and 8 record (62%). The losses have moved teams from 4th to a 3 and 17 record (15%) in Preliminary Finals, and teams from 8th to a 0 and 2 record (0%).

The Preliminary FInal and overall record of teams from 4th on the ladder remains perplexing.

The Head-to-Head Tipsters all scored only 1 from 2, except for Consult the Ladder, who scored 2 from 2, which took their season-long collective collective average record to 149.2 from 215 (69%).

RSMP_Simple produced the round’s best MAE of 25.3 points per game, which was only a fraction better than the next-best in RSMP_Weighted.

The all-Predictor average was 28.4 points per game, which kept the season-long average at 26.4 points per game.

The round-by-round history of Margin Predictor rankings appears below, and shows no changes in the ranking of the Predictors.

Log probability scores were all positive this week for the bookie-based forecasters and negative for the MoS forecasters, worst of all for MoSHBODS_Prob.

The Leaderboard saw Bookie_RE taking 3rd place ahead of MoSHPlay_Prob.

WAGERING

Another loss this week for Investors, this time for just over 2c.

Overall, the Combined Portfolio is up by 6.6c on the season, that from a +2.7% ROI on a 2.4 turn.