2025 - Round 26 : MoSHPlay
/UPDATE FRIDAY 7PM
MoSHPlay finishes at Crows by 7 points.
UPDATE THURSDAY 7:15PM
MoSHPlay has some preliminary thoughts on the two semi-finals (but not even semi thoughts on the preliminary finals)
2025 - Round 26 : Overs/Unders
/Just the two games this week, and not much to separate the four sets of forecasts.
Read More2025 - Round 26 : 1st, 3rd, 7th, and 8th
/The bookmakers have both of this weeks’ games as close-run things, though still have both home teams as favourites.
Read More2025 - Team Ratings After Round 25 (Week 1 of the Finals)
/MoSSBODS swapped Collingwood into 3rd ahead of Brisbane Lions, and Sydney into 10th ahead of GWS, while MoSHBODS swapped Geelong into 1st ahead of Western Bulldogs, and moved Collingwood into 4th, Gold Coast into 6th, Adelaide into 7th, Fremantle into 8th, and GWS into 9th.
All of which left MoSSBODS with a Top 3 of Dogs, Cats, and Pies, and MoSHBODS with a Top 3 of Cats, Dogs, and Hawks.
Read More2025 - Round 25 Results (Finals Week 1) - Cat Friendly
/It’s been a while since the teams in 2nd, 4th, 7th and 8th prevailed in the first week of the men’s Finals - about 19 years if my data is correct.
Read More2025 - Round 25 : MoSHPlay
/UPDATE 7:30pm THURSDAY
MoSHPlay is sticking with the Crows by 2 goals as its final forecast, and now also has preliminary views about the remainder of the round.
UPDATE 10:15pm wedNESDAY
MoSHPlay is preliminarily opting for the Crows by 2 goals.
2025 - Round 25 : Overs/Unders
/There are four games this week, and the MoS twins have relatively similar views about the likely total scores in all of them, differing by no more than a couple of points in any single game.
With the notable exception of the Cats v Lions game, the bookmakers’ views are not all that different either.
Read More2025 - Round 25 : Clutch
/If the bookmakers are right, all four of the weekend Finals should be close, albeit that the home teams should win all four.
Read More2025 - Team Ratings After Round 24.1
/MoSSBODS left the team ordering unchanged and MoSHBODS swapped only Essendon and North Melbourne into 16th and 15th respectively, which left MoSSBODS at the end of the home and away season with a Top 3 of Dogs, Cats, and Lions, and MoSHBODS with a Top 3 of Dogs, Cats, and Hawks.
Read More2025 - Round 24.1 Results - Nothing Much
/One game, one predictable emphatic winner.
MoSHPlay_Marg therefore finishes the home and away season two tips clear of Bookie Knows Best, and a further three tips clear of ENS_Linear.
The all-Tipster average score came in at 1 from 1, which took the season-long all-Tipster average performance to 146.1 from 207 (71%). That’s quite a predictable season.
Read More2025 - Round 24.1 : MoSHPlay
/UPDATE TUESDAY 7PM
MoSHPlay’s preliminary view is Suns by 51 points.
2025 - Round 24.1 : Overs/Unders
/There’s only one game this week, and the MoS twins have very different views about its scoring potential compared to the bookmakers.
Read More2025 - Round 24.1: Not With a Bang ...
/Just the much unanticipated Gold Coast v Essendon game this week, which is expected to be won by around 10 goals by most respected forecasters.
Read More2025 - Team Ratings After Round 24
/MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS moved only four teams this week, MoSSBODS swapping the Lions into 3rd ahead of the Pies, and the Roos into 16th ahead of the Tigers, and MoSHBODS swapping Hawthorn into 3rd ahead of Adelaide, and the Swans into 11th ahead of Carlton.
That left MoSSBODS with a Top 3 of Dogs, Cats, and Lions, and MoSHBODS with a Top 3 of Dogs, Cats, and Hawks.
It’s very likely, therefore, that the team rated highest at the end of the home-and-away season by both Systems, will miss Finals.
Read More2025 - Round 24 Results - Ups and Downs
/Once again, seven of the nine early-week favourites were successful this weekend, which meant that all but Home Sweet Home (four) recorded that score.
That left MoSHPlay_Marg still two tips clear of Bookie Knows Best in 1st, and ENS_Linear still three tips futher back from BKB in 3rd.
The all-Tipster average score came in at 6.7 from 9, which took the season-long all-Tipster average performance to 145.1 from 206 (70%).
Read More2025 - Round 24 : MoSHPlay
/UPDATE SATURDAY 1:30PM
MoSHPlay has amended but still preliminary views about the Sunday games.
UPDATE FRIDAY 7:30PM
MoSHPlay finishes at Gold Coast by 26 points.
UPDATE THURSDAY 7:15PM
MoSHPlay has preliminary views about the rest of the round.
UPDATE THURSDAY 7PM
MoSHPlay has finished at Carlton by 23 points.
UPDATE WEDNESDAY 7PM
MoSHPlay’s preliminary view of the Thursday night game is Carlton by 22 points.
2025 - Round 24 : Overs/Unders
/The average absolute difference between the MoS twins’ Total forecasts this week is another small 1.7 points per game, and there are only two games where the difference exceeds 3 points. Overall, the twins have roughly the same average expected total, and that average is 4 points below the bookmakers’.
Read More2025 - Round 24 : Just 19 Left
/Only one game is expected to be close this week - Lions v Hawks, where the expected margin is 9 points - while the remainder are expected to be won by between 20 and 60 points.
To give the full details, one game is expected to be won by 9 points, six by between 20 and 30 points, one by 40 points, and one more by 60 points.
That of course augurs particularly poorly for contrarianism …
Read More2025 - Team Ratings After Round 23
/MoSSBODS moved seven teams this week, while MoSHBODS moved nine, though both, interestingly, increased the Pies’ Combined Rating and decreased the Crows’, despite the Crows winning 59 to 56.
The reason, of course, is because the Pies generated 2 more Scoring Shots and entered the contest lower rated than the Crows.
On MoSSBODS that saw Collingwood move into 3rd and Adelaide into 6th, allowing the Lions and Hawks to climb a spot each into 4th and 5th respectively. Further down, Fremantle and Melbourne swapped 8th and 9th, and GWS and Sydney swapped 10th and 11th.
On MoSHBODS, Collingwood and Adelaide retained their pre-round rankings of 6th and 3rd respectively, and the Lions jumped two places into 5th. The only other multi-spot movers were Gold Coast, down two spots into 7th, and GWS, up two spots into 8th.
The only agreement between MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS towards the top then is Dogs in 1st and Cats in 2nd.
Read More2025 - Round 23 Results - A Little Leakage
/Seven of the nine early-week favourites were again successful this weekend, which meant that all but MoSSBODS_Marg (six), Home Sweet Home and Consult the Ladder (five) were handsomely rewarded for their conservatism.
That left MoSHPlay_Marg still two tips clear of Bookie Knows Best in 1st, and ENS_Linear still three tips futher back from BKB in 3rd.
The all-Tipster average score came in at 6.4 from 9, which took the season-long all-Tipster average performance to 138.4 from 197 (70%).
Read More
