The average absolute difference between the MoS twins’ Total forecasts this week is another small 1.7 points per game, and there are only two games where the difference exceeds 3 points. Overall, the twins have roughly the same average expected total, and that average is 4 points below the bookmakers’.

There is disagreement this week about the highest- and lowest-scoring games:

Highest Scoring Game

MoSSBODS: Richmond v Geelong
MoSHBODS: Western Bulldogs v Fremantle
Bookmakers: North Melbourne v Adelaide

Lowest Scoring Game

MoS twins: Essendon v Carlton
Bookmakers: Collingwood v Melbourne

Highest Scoring Team

All: Geelong

Lowest Scoring Team

All: Richmond

WAGERS

MoSSBODS found two wagers this week, both of them unders.

The overlays in the two games in play are about 8 and 12 points, and the wager sizes 3% and 5.3% accordingly. We were also very close to a wager in the GWS v St Kilda game where the overlay is 6 points, and in the Brisbane Lions v Hawthorn game where the overlay is 6.1 points.

PREVIOUS WEEK

Last week saw MoSSBODS take mean absolute error (MAE) honours for Game Totals, MoSHBODS do the same for Away Team Scores, Sportsbet do the same for Home Team Scores, and the TAB and Sportsbet do the same for Game Margins.

That allowed the TAB to wrest back the season-long title for Away Team Scores from MoSHBODS. The TAB still retains the season-long lead for all other metrics as well.

Those leads are now as follows:

Game Margins: the TAB 7 points ahead of Sportsbet, 142 points ahead of MoSHBODS, and 310 points ahead of MoSSBODS
Home Team Scores: TAB 17 points ahead of MoSHBODS, 24 points ahead of Sportsbet, and 122 points ahead of MoSSBODS
Away Team Scores: the TAB 41 points ahead of Sportsbet, 94 points ahead of MoSHBODS, and 159 points ahead of MoSSBODS
Game Totals: TAB 20 points ahead of MoSHBODS, 24 points ahead of Sportsbet, and 75 points ahead of MoSSBODS

Across the season, the overall results by metric have been:

Game Margins: Sportsbet 9 round wins (including 2 ties), TAB 9 round wins (including 2 ties), MoSSBODS 6 round wins, MoSHBODS 3 round wins
Home Team Scores: MoSHBODS 9 round wins, MoSSBODS 5 round wins, TAB 5 round wins (including 2 ties), Sportsbet 5 round wins (including 2 ties)
Away Team Scores: TAB 11.5 round wins (including 1 tie), MoSSBODS 6 round wins, MoSHBODS 5 round wins, Sportsbet 1.5 round wins (including 1 tie)
Game Totals: TAB 9 round wins (including 4 ties), MoSHBODS 8 round wins, MoSSBODS 5 round wins, Sportsbet 2 round wins (including/comprising 4 ties)

Wagering and Game-by-Game Performance

There were three bets last weekend, one successful and two unsuccessful unders wagers with the TAB, which left MoSSBODS with a 17 and 17 season-long record against the TAB, and a 7 and 6 season-long record against Sportsbet.

Overall, MoSSBODS was on the right side of the TAB and Sportsbet in 5 games last week, while MoSHBODS was on the right side of the TAB and Sportsbet in 4 games.

That takes MoSSBODS to 98 from 197 (50%) against the TAB and 99 from 197 (50%) against Sportsbet, and MoSHBODS to 112 from 197 (57%) against the TAB and Sportsbet.

The round-by-round performance is shown in the following table.