2025 - Round 24 : Just 19 Left
/Only one game is expected to be close this week - Lions v Hawks, where the expected margin is 9 points - while the remainder are expected to be won by between 20 and 60 points.
To give the full details, one game is expected to be won by 9 points, six by between 20 and 30 points, one by 40 points, and one more by 60 points.
That of course augurs particularly poorly for contrarianism …
TIPS AND PREDICTIONS
Indeed, amongst the Head-to-Head Tipsters, only Home Sweet Home (5 times) and Consult the Ladder (once) have opted for an underdog.
Amongst the Margin Predictors there are double-digit forecast ranges in all nine games, most notably 24 points in the Tigers v Cats clash, 18 points in the Power v Suns, and Dogs v Dockers clashes, and 17 points in the Roos v Crows matchup.
Bookie_3 is the extreme Predictor in four games this week, and MoSSBODS_Marg, Bookie_3, ENS_Linear, and RSMP_Weighted in three each.
Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors there are only three games with a double-digit percentage point forecast range: 14% points in the Power v Suns game, 12% points in the Dogs v Dockers game, and 11% points in the Lions v Hawks game.
MoSSBODS_Prob is the extreme Predictor in five games this week, and Bookie_RE in four games.
WAGERS
Shenanigans were at fairly low levels this week, with evidence only in the Dogs v Dockers game where wanted 7.1% on the Dogs -21.5 @ $1.91 and ended up with only 2.3% at that price, another 0.6% at -23.5 and $1.90, and a final 1.8% at -24.5 and $1.90.
In total, Investors have wagers in five line markets totalling just under 9% of the original Line Fund in sizes ranging from 0.3% on Essendon to that 4.7% on Western Bulldogs.
Those line bets are joined by six head-to-head wagers totalling just over 10% of the original Head-to-Head Fund in sizes ranging from 0.1% on GWS to 5.8% on Western Bulldogs.
(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)
The week’s Ready Reckoner reveals that Western Bulldogs carry the most risk in the sense that the difference between a 25-point win and a loss represents 7.7% of the original Combined Portfolio. On the same metric Port Adelaide carry 4.4% risk, Melbourne 2%, Essendon 1.8%, Richmond 1.5%, Brisbane Lions 0.6%, and GWS 0.04%.
A best case set of results would boost the Combined Portfolio by just under 10c, while a worst case set would snip just over 8c off the price.
To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.
Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.
