2025 - Round 24 Results - Ups and Downs
/Once again, seven of the nine early-week favourites were successful this weekend, which meant that all but Home Sweet Home (four) recorded that score.
That left MoSHPlay_Marg still two tips clear of Bookie Knows Best in 1st, and ENS_Linear still three tips futher back from BKB in 3rd.
The all-Tipster average score came in at 6.7 from 9, which took the season-long all-Tipster average performance to 145.1 from 206 (70%).
Margin prediction was, on average, over 10 points per game easier than last week, and easiest of all for ENS_Linear, whose mean average error (MAE) of 19.15 points per game was fractionally better than next best, Bookie_9’s 19.23 points per game. Bookie_3 recorded the worst MAE this week at 23.9 points per game.
The all-Predictor average was just 21.2 points per game, which dropped the season-long average to 26.2 points per game.
The round-by-round history of Margin Predictor rankings appears below, and shows the Top 3 Predictors, ENS_Linear, MoSHPlay_Marg, and Bookie_LPSO remaining unchanged, with Bookie_Hcap nudging past RSMP_Simple to take 4th.
Log probability scores were all positive again this week, but mostly higher for the bookie-based models than for the MoS trio, and lowest for MoSHPlay_Prob.
That was enough to see Bookie_RE take 2nd place from MoSHPlay_Prob, behind Bookie_LPSO.
WAGERING
Another small Combined Portfolio loss this week, thanks mostly to the Dogs letting Investors down on Sunday.
Overall, the Combined Portfolio finished down by another 1.1c, dropping the season profit to just over 8c, that from a +4% ROI on a 2.3 turn.
