2025 - Round 23 Results - A Little Leakage
/Seven of the nine early-week favourites were again successful this weekend, which meant that all but MoSSBODS_Marg (six), Home Sweet Home and Consult the Ladder (five) were handsomely rewarded for their conservatism.
That left MoSHPlay_Marg still two tips clear of Bookie Knows Best in 1st, and ENS_Linear still three tips futher back from BKB in 3rd.
The all-Tipster average score came in at 6.4 from 9, which took the season-long all-Tipster average performance to 138.4 from 197 (70%).
Margin prediction was, on average, almost 6 points per game harder than last week, but easiest of all for RSMP_Simple, whose mean average error (MAE) of 28.5 points per game was almost half a point per game better than next best, ENS_Linear’s 29 points per game. MoSSBODS_Marg recorded the worst MAE this week at 33.4 points per game.
The all-Predictor average was 31.3 points per game, which moved the season-long average to 26.5 points per game.
The round-by-round history of Margin Predictor rankings appears below, and shows the Top 3 Predictors, ENS_Linear, MoSHPlay_Marg, and Bookie_LPSO remaining unchanged, with RSMP_Simple leaping three places into 4th.
Log probability scores were all positive again this week, but higher for the bookie-based models than for the MoS trio.
That was enough to see Bookie_LPSO take 1st place from MoSHPlay_Prob, and for Bookie_RE to retain 3rd.
WAGERING
A small Combined Portfolio loss this week, thanks mostly to the Head-to-Head Fund, whose losses could not be completely erased by the Line Fund.
Overall, the Combined Portfolio finished down by another 1.1c, dropping the season profit to just over 9c, that from a +4% ROI on a 2.18 turn.
